基于Logit模型的城市货运配送车辆选择行为影响研究  

Research on Influence of Urban Freight Distribution Vehicle Selection Behavior Based on Logit Model

作　　者：武慧荣[1] 万玉娟 王玉莹 WU Huirong;WAN Yujuan;WANG Yuying(School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学土木与交通学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《大连交通大学学报》2025年第1期24-31,共8页Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University

基　　金：黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(E2017002)。

摘　　要：为促进新能源货车的推广应用,基于多项式Logit模型与混合Logit模型,探究影响城市配送车辆选择行为因素。采用正交实验设计生成陈述性偏好调查问卷,以调研数据为样本,就车辆运行相关因素、政府补贴及通行政策等对新能源货运配送车辆选择行为影响因素进行实证检验,并根据性别、月收入、职业对调研样本加以分组,探究相关因素对不同类型受访者选择行为的异质性影响。结果表明:混合Logit模型的拟合优度高于多项式Logit模型;男性、收入越高的受访者和物流企业管理者更偏好选择新能源货车;续航里程、充电桩基础设施是影响城市配送从业人员车辆选择行为的重要因素,通行政策对公司货车驾驶员有显著影响,补贴金额仅对物流企业管理者有影响,对专用停车位无显著影响。In order to promote the popularization and application of new energy trucks,the factors affecting the selection behavior of urban delivery vehicles were explored based on the polynomial logit model and the mixed logit model.An orthogonal experiment design was used to generate a stated preference questionnaire.Taking the research data as a sample,the empirical test was conducted on the factors influencing the selection behavior of new energy freight delivery vehicles,such as vehicle operation-related factors,government subsidies and access policies.The samples were grouped according to gender,monthly income,and occupation to investigate the heterogeneous effects of related factors on the choice behavior of dfferent types of respondents.The results show that the mixed logit model fits better than the polynomial logit model,and male respondents with higher income and logistics managers prefer new energy trucks.Range and charging infrastructure are important factors influencing the vehicle choice behavior of urban delivery workers,and access policy has a significant effect on company truck drivers.The amount of subsidy only has an effect on logistic enterprise managers,and dedicated parking spaces do not have a significant effect.

关 键 词：交通运输工程 城市货运配送车辆 选择行为 影响因素 混合Logit模型 

分 类 号：U492.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]