异质性工业化、城镇化协调关系与经济增长:人口老龄化视角  

Heterogeneous Industrialization,Urbanization and Economic Growth:Perspective of Population Aging

作　　者：李通屏 武逸凡 陈汀 Li Tongping;Wu Yifan;Chen Ting(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430078,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,武汉430078

出　　处：《晋阳学刊》2025年第2期50-65,共16页Academic Journal of Jinyang

摘　　要：研究工业化、城镇化和人口老龄化“三化”协调发展问题独具中国特色,而调节效应可以量化这一问题。由人均GDP的因素分解法可知,劳动生产率、劳动参与率和劳动年龄人口占总人口比重是人口老龄化影响经济增长的三个中介变量,基于此,利用2010—2020年31省份的面板数据,构建静态面板和动态面板模型,选择按省份聚类的双向固定效应和系统GMM方法,研究人口老龄化对经济增长的总效应和城镇化、工业化的“双重”调节作用,并构建有中介的城镇化、工业化“双重”调节模型,通过依次检验法探究其调节机制。调节效应结果显示,工业化在人口老龄化对经济增长的影响过程中存在负向调节效应,城镇化在人口老龄化对经济增长的影响过程中存在正向调节效应,其中,劳动生产率和劳动参与率是调节作用的两个重要中介变量,劳动年龄人口占总人口比重在调节效应中的中介作用并不显著。以劳动生产率为中介变量,工业化和城镇化的直接调节效应强度小于间接调节效应;以劳动参与率为中介变量,工业化和城镇化的直接调节效应强度大于间接调节效应。劳动参与率这一变量虽然直观,但更要关注劳动生产率这一指标。从劳动生产率和劳动参与率两个角度剖析,人口老龄化背景下,要实现经济增长,城镇化依然是动力,工业化突破某些阻碍亦是动力,一是为老年人口提供就业服务,以适应工业化带来的新的劳动力市场需求;二是由高速度工业化向高质量工业化转变,以创新驱动工业化,进一步协调工业化、城镇化发展关系。The study of the coordinated development of industrialization,urbanization and population aging is unique to China,and the moderating effect can quantify this problem.From the factor decomposition method of GDP per capita,it can be seen that labor productivity,labor participation rate and the proportion of working-age population in the total population are the three intermediary variables of population aging afecting economic growth.Based on this,this paper uses the panel data of 31 provinces from 2010 to 2020,constructs the static panel and dynamic panel models,and chooses the bidirectional fixed-effects and systematic GMM methods of clustering by provinces to study the total effect of population aging on economic growth and urbanization,industrialization,and explore the regulation mechanism through sequential testing.The results of the moderating effect show that industrialization has a negative moderating effect in the process of the impact of population aging on economic growth,and urbanization has a positive moderating effect in the process of the impact of population aging on economic growth,in which labor productivity and labor participation rate are two important mediating variables of the moderating effect,and the proportion of working-age population in the total population does not have a significant moderating role in the moderating effect.Taking labor productivity as the mediating variable,the intensity of the direct moderating effect of industrialization and urbanization is smaller than the indirect moderating effect,and taking labor participation rate as the mediating variable,the intensity of the direct moderating effect of industrialization and urbanization is larger than the indirect moderating effect,and although the variable of labor participation rate is intuitive,we should pay more attention to the indicator of labor productivity.Analyzed from the perspectives of labor productivity and labor participation rate,in order to achieve economic growth in the context of population aging,urbanization

关 键 词：人口老龄化 经济增长 工业化 城镇化 有中介的调节模型 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]