混凝土坝裂缝开合度预测模型对比研究  

Comparative Study on Prediction Models for Crack Opening Degree in Concrete Dam

作　　者：黄松 吴杰 房展超 储华平[1,2] 武雁刚 薛子龙 何临波 HUANG Song;WU Jie;FANG Zhanchao;CHU Huaping;WU Yan'gang;XUE Zilong;HE Linbo(Nanjing Research Institute of Hydrology and Water Conservation Automation,Ministry of Water Resource,Nanjing 210028,China;Research Center on Hydrology&Water Resources Monitoring,Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing 210028,China;Nanjing Yangtze River Administration Office,Nanjing 210011,China;Yixing Water Conservancy Bureau,Yixing 214000,China)

机构地区：[1]水利部南京水利水文自动化研究所,江苏南京210028 [2]水利部水文水资源监控工程技术研究中心,江苏南京210028 [3]南京市长江河道管理处,江苏南京210011 [4]宜兴市水利局,江苏宜兴214000

出　　处：《人民珠江》2025年第3期25-31,共7页Pearl River

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本业务费专项(1630062022004、1630062023008);南京市水务科技项目(202301)。

摘　　要：近年来,经典统计模型和机器学习模型在大坝安全监控领域并行发展。然而,前者的预测能力和后者的机理解释能力通常存在一定的局限。基于某混凝土重力坝的裂缝开合度监测数据,分别采用多元线性回归、逐步回归、随机森林模型建立混凝土重力坝裂缝开合度模型。结果表明,基于2022年实测裂缝开合度数据集成功建立3种预测裂缝开合度模型,其中随机森林模型的预测能力最佳(决定系数R^(2)为0.995,均方根误差E_(RMS)和平均绝对误差E_(MA)分别为0.174、0.124 mm),其次为逐步回归模型(R^(2)为0.989,E_(RMS)和E_(MA)分别为0.192、0.151 mm);3种模型均得出温度分量是影响混凝土重力坝裂缝开合度最主要的原因量;通过对多元线性回归模型逐项分解得出混凝土重力坝裂缝开合度与温度分量、水压分量和时序分量变化规律。研究成果可为某混凝土重力坝工程运行管理和“四预”平台的建设提供参考性意见,具有较高的理论意义和工程应用价值。In recent years,classical statistical models and machine learning models have been developed in parallel in the field of dam safety monitoring.However,there are some deficiencies in the predictive power of the former and the theoretical explanation of the latter.In this study,multiple linear regression,stepwise regression,and random forest algorithm were used to establish models for the crack opening degree of a concrete gravity dam based on the monitoring data of the crack opening degree of the concrete gravity dam.The results show that three models for predicting crack opening degree are successfully established based on the crack opening degree dataset measured in 2022.The random forest model has the best predictive ability(determination coefficient(R^(2))is 0.995;root mean square error(E_(RMS))and mean absolute error(E_(MA))are 0.174 mm and 0.124 mm,respectively),followed by the stepwise regression model(R^(2) is 0.989;E_(RMS) and E_(MA) are 0.192 mm and 0.151 mm).Three models both indicate that the temperature component is the main factor affecting the crack opening degree of the concrete gravity dam;by decomposing the multiple linear regression model item by item,the variation patterns of crack opening degree of the concrete gravity dam,temperature component,hydraulic pressure component,and time component are obtained.This study can provide a reference for the operation and management of the concrete gravity dam and the construction of the forecasting,early warning,drilling,and emergency plan(FEDE)platform,with a relatively high theoretical and practical significance.

关 键 词：混凝土坝 裂缝开合度 统计模型 随机森林模型 

分 类 号：TV642[水利工程—水利水电工程]