中国对外直接投资给东道国带来了债务陷阱吗?——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的经验证据  

Does China's Foreign Direct Investment Lead to a Debt Trap for Host Countries?Empirical Evidence from Countries along the Belt and Road Initiative

作　　者：潘子健 胡玉凤 PAN Zi-jian;HU Yu-feng(School of Finance,Tongling University,Tongling Anhui 244061,China)

机构地区：[1]铜陵学院金融学院,安徽铜陵244061

出　　处：《铜陵学院学报》2025年第1期36-41,81,共7页Journal of Tongling University

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“‘双碳’目标下高耗能制造业绿色转型升级研究”(23YJC630056);铜陵学院校级科研项目“中国对外经贸合作是否造成了东道国的债务风险——基于‘一带一路’沿线的面板数据”(2020tlxy19)。

摘　　要：“一带一路”倡议自提出以来,吸引了众多国家积极响应。然而,近年来部分沿线国家出现债务问题,一些媒体借此炒作所谓的中国“债务陷阱”论,阻碍了“一带一路”建设推进。文章从宏观资产负债率的角度,实证检验中国直接投资对“一带一路”沿线国家债务风险的影响。研究发现:中国的直接投资对沿线东道国的债务风险存在抑制效应。这种抑制效应在短期内主要通过促进东道国资本形成抑制了债务风险产生,在长期上则通过缩小东道国债务规模来实现,该结论为反驳关于中国“债务陷阱”论奠定了事实基础,同时也为沿线国家准确理解和评估“一带一路”倡议提供了参考借鉴。Since the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed ten years ago,it has attracted active participation from numerous countries.However,in recent years,some countries along the route have encountered debt issues due to external shocks,and western media have seized upon this to hype the so-called China's"debt trap",impeding the progress of the Belt and Road construction.In response,the impact of China's direct investment on the debt risk of host countries along the Belt and Road is examined.The study finds that China's direct investment in the Belt and Road has a suppressive effect on the debt risk of the countries along the route.This suppressive effect is mainly achieved in the short term by promoting the host country's capital formation and reducing debt repayment risk and in the long term by reducing the debt scale of the host country.The findings provide a factual basis to refute the China's"debt trap"and offer references for countries along the route to accurately understand and assess the Belt and Road Initiative.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 对外直接投资 债务风险 宏观资产负债率 “债务陷阱”论 

分 类 号：F75[经济管理—国际贸易]