The application of the analysis framework for compound extreme event dependencies in China  

作　　者：Haokun Wei Xichao Gao Jie Feng Zhiyong Yang 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing,China [2]Key Laboratory of River Basin Digital Twinning of Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing,China

出　　处：《River》2024年第3期272-283,共12页江河(英文)

基　　金：National Key R&D Program of China,Grant/Award Number:2022YFC3002705;National Natural Science Foundation of China,Grant/Award Number:5220904;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Grant/Award Number:SKL2022TS11。

摘　　要：The escalation of compound extreme events has resulted in noteworthy economic and property losses.Recognizing the intricate interconnections among these events has become imperative.To tackle this challenge,we have formulated a comprehensive framework for the systematic analysis of their dependencies.This framework consists of three steps.(1)Define extreme events using Mahalanobis distance thresholds.(2)Represent dependencies among multiple extreme events through a point process-based method.(3)Verify dependencies with residual tail coefficients,determining thefinal dependency structure.Applying this framework to assess the extreme dependence of precipitation on wind speed and temperature in China,revealed four distinct dependency structures.In northern,Jianghuai,and southern China,precipitation heavily relies on wind speed,while tempera-tures maintain relative independence.In northeastern and northwestern China,precipitation exhibits relative independence,yet a notable dependence exists between temperatures and wind speed.In southwestern China,precipitation strongly depends on temperature,while wind speed remains relatively indepen-dent.The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau region displays a significant dependence relationship among precipitation,wind speed,and temperature,with weaker dependence between extreme wind speed and temperature.This framework is instrumental for analyzing dependencies among extreme values in compound events.

关 键 词：compound extremes events extremal dependency structure extreme precipitation extreme temperatures extreme value theory extreme wind speed 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]