现代人口学核心要素与用电需求变化关联分析  

Analysis of The Correlation Between Core Elements of Modern Demography and Changes in Electricity Demand

作　　者：葛扬 姚佳维 张皓然 王梦 GE Yang;YAO Jiawei;ZHANG Haoran;WANG Meng(Nanjing Linyang Power Technology Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210019,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林洋电力科技有限公司,江苏省南京市210019

出　　处：《电力信息与通信技术》2025年第3期33-38,共6页Electric Power Information and Communication Technology

摘　　要：为了研究人口学核心要素和用电需求之间的关联关系,文章针对人口静态要素,选取江苏省的人口和用电量数据样本,应用归一化开展数据处理,基于corr相关系数矩阵法对该地区人口规模与用电量展开分析,发现二者具有高度正相关性。针对动态要素,选取南京市的人口和用电量在产业间分布样本,应用corr相关系数矩阵法,重点研究人口在不同产业间的分布占比变化和用电量在不同产业的占比变化关联关系,发现第二、三产业相比第一产业体现出明显的关联关系。总体而言,人口学要素与用电需求存在显著的关联关系,人口数量的增加直接推动了用电需求的增长,而人口在产业间的分布变化也会引起用电需求的变化。In order to study the correlation between demographic core elements and electricity demand,a sample of population and electricity consumption data from Jiangsu Province is choosed for population static elements.Normalization is applied for data processing,and the correlation coefficient matrix method is used to analyze the population size and electricity consumption in the region.The results show that there is a high positive correlation between the two.For dynamic elements,a sample of population and electricity consumption distribution among industries in Nanjing,is choosed and the corr correlation coefficient matrix method is applied to study the correlation between changes in the distribution proportion of population among different industries and changes in the proportion of electricity consumption in different industries,the results show that there is a clear correlation between the secondary and third industries compared to the first industry.Overall,there is a significant correlation between demographic factors and electricity demand.The increase in population directly drives the growth of electricity demand,and changes in the distribution of population among industries can also cause changes in electricity demand.

关 键 词：人口学 产业 用电需求 corr相关系数矩阵法 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]