运用集中度和圆形分布法分析河南省焦作市流行性感冒季节性特征  

Analysis of influenza characteristics in Jiaozuo of Henan Province by using concentration and circular distribution methods

作　　者：任宝红 原跃礼[1] 李化荣[1] 王军[1] REN Baohong;YUAN Yueli;LI Huarong;WANG Jun(Jiaozuo Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jiaozuo,Henan 454000,China)

机构地区：[1]焦作市疾病预防控制中心,河南焦作454000

出　　处：《现代疾病预防控制》2025年第2期129-133,共5页MODERN DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION

摘　　要：目的分析焦作市哨点医院流行性感冒(流感)病原学的季节性特征,为焦作市的流感防控工作提供依据。方法从中国流感监测信息系统中导出2014—2023年焦作市哨点医院流感病原学监测数据,采用集中度和圆形分布法描述性分析流感季节性特征。结果2014—2023年焦作市哨点医院采集的7577份流感样病例(ILI)咽拭子标本中,检出流感病毒核酸阳性标本1317份,阳性检出率为17.38%;流感病毒阳性检出率的集中度(M)为0.578,各年度M值的范围为0.306~0.977,显示发病具有一定的季节性;圆形分布法结果显示,集中趋势(r)为0.585,发病高峰日为2月3日,流行高峰期为12月5日至次年4月4日(Z=44.866,P<0.05);M和集中趋势(r)高度相关(Pearson相关系数为1.000,P<0.05);10年间甲型H1N1、甲型H3N2和乙型流感三种型别交替占优。结论焦作市流感活动高峰主要出现在冬春季,不同型别交替出现,应在流感高峰期来临前落实防控措施,最大限度降低流感流行水平。Objective To investigate the seasonal distribution patterns of influenza etiology in Jiaozuo Sentinel Hospitals from2014 to 2023,so as to provide a basis for local influenza prevention and control.Methods Influenza pathogen surveillance data of Jiaozuo Sentinel Hospitals in China,spanning from 2014 to 2023,were extracted from China Influenza Surveillance System,and analyzed using concentration and circular distribution methods.Results Out of 7577 throat swab samples of influenza-like illness(ILI)collected,1317 tested positive for influenza virus nucleic acid,with a positive detection rate of 17.38%.The concentration measure(M)for influenza pathogen detection was 0.578,with annual M values ranging from 0.306 to 0.977,suggesting a seasonal pattern in disease incidence.Circular distribution analysis indicated a central tendency(r)of 0.585,with a peak incidence on February 3rd and a peak of epidemic period from December 5th to April 4th of the following year(Z=44.866,P<0.05);A strong correlation was observed between the M value and central tendency(r),with a pearson coefficient of 1.000(P<0.05);Over the decade,influenza A(H1N1),A(H3N2),and B have alternated in dominance.Conclusions Influenza activity in Jiaozuo City peaks predominantly in the winter and spring seasons,with varying types taking precedence.Implementing prevention and control measures prior the influenza peak season is crucial to mitigate the impact of influenza epidemics.

关 键 词：流行性感冒 病原学 集中度 圆形分布 

分 类 号：R511.7[医药卫生—内科学]