2005—2023年濮阳市华龙区法定传染病发病趋势分析  

Incidence trends of notifiable infectious diseases in Hualong District,Puyang,2005-2023

作　　者：孙李娜 赵建 张昊 董湖 韩慧卿 SUN Lina;ZHAO Jian;ZHANG Hao;DONG Hu;HAN Huiqing(Hualong District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Puyang,Henan 457000,China)

机构地区：[1]濮阳市华龙区疾病预防控制中心,河南濮阳457000

出　　处：《现代疾病预防控制》2025年第2期134-138,共5页MODERN DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION

摘　　要：目的分析2005—2023年濮阳市华龙区法定传染病发病趋势,为法定传染病防控提供依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2005—2023年濮阳市华龙区法定传染病发病数据和人口资料,采用Joinpoint回归模型对发病率变化趋势进行分析,以年度变化百分比(APC)、平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)及其95%置信区间(CI)作为测量指标。结果2005—2023年濮阳市华龙区共报告法定传染病76276例,年均发病率为917.99/10万。法定传染病发病率总体呈上升趋势(AAPC=6.64%,95%CI:1.71~11.59,P<0.05),2005—2009年快速上升(APC=22.80%,95%CI:2.52~99.04,P<0.05),2009—2021年缓慢下降(APC=-4.46%,95%CI:-29.73~-0.85,P<0.05),2021—2023年快速上升(APC=55.48%,95%CI:0.11~120.32,P<0.05)。乙类传染病无明显变化趋势(AAPC=1.80%,95%CI:-3.53~6.32,P>0.05),丙类传染病呈单调上升趋势(APC=AAPC=11.21%,95%CI:3.88~19.12,P<0.05)。呼吸道传染病、肠道传染病及其他传播途径传染病均呈上升趋势[AAPC(95%CI)分别为11.72%(6.20~16.75)、6.70%(0.90~12.95)、12.71%(4.10~21.13),P均<0.05],血源及性传播传染病、自然疫源及虫媒传染病均无明显变化趋势[AAPC(95%CI)分别为-1.74%(-4.12~1.14)、9.42%(-1.83~21.93),P均>0.05]。法定传染病男性发病率、女性发病率均无明显变化趋势[AAPC(95%CI)分别为0.88%(-2.58~4.42)、1.65%(-2.30~5.73),P均>0.05]。0~<15岁组(AAPC=4.40%,95%CI:-2.37~11.56,P>0.05)和15~<65岁组(AAPC=0.45%,95%CI:-5.39~4.75,P>0.05)法定传染病发病率无明显变化趋势,≥65岁组呈上升趋势(AAPC=6.74%,95%CI:2.84~9.83,P<0.05)。呼吸道传染病和肠道传染病发病存在明显季节性,呼吸道传染病高发月份为1月和12月、肠道传染病高发月份为5月。结论2005—2023年濮阳市华龙区法定传染病发病率总体呈上升趋势,目前防控形势依然严峻;呼吸道传染病、肠道传染病为重点防控传染病,≥65岁人群为重点防控人群,1月、5月和12月为防控关键期。Objective To analyze the incidence trends of notifiable infectious diseases in Hualong District of Puyang from 2005 to 2023,so as to provide evidence for the prevention and control of notifiable infectious diseases.Methods Notifiable infectious disease incidence data and population data in Hualong District of Puyang were collected through the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System from 2005 to 2023;the trend of incidence was analyzed using Joinpoint regression model,with the annual percentage change(APC),average annual percentage change(AAPC),and their 95%confidence interval(CI)as the measurement indexes as measurement indicators.Results From 2005-2023,a total of 76276 cases of notifiable infectious diseases were reported in Hualong District of Puyang,with an average annual incidence rate of 917.99 per 100000 persons.The incidence rate of notifiable infectious diseases showed an overall increasing trend(AAPC=6.64%,95%CI:1.71-11.59,P<0.05),with a rapid increase from 2005to 2009(APC=22.80%,95%CI:2.52-99.04,P<0.05),a slow decrease from 2009 to 2021(APC=-4.46%,95%CI:-29.73--0.85,P<0.05),and 2021-2023 rapid increase(APC=55.48%,95%CI:0.11-120.32,P<0.05).There was no significant trend in infectious diseases of class B(AAPC=1.80%,95%CI:-3.53-6.32,P>0.05),and a monotonous increasing trend in infectious diseases of class C(APC=AAPC=11.21%,95%CI:3.88-19.12,P<0.05).Respiratory infectious diseases,intestinal infectious diseases and infectious diseases of other transmission routes showed an increasing trend[AAPC(95%CI)were 11.72%(6.20-16.75),6.70%(0.90-12.95),12.71%(4.10-21.13),respectively,all P<0.05],and there was no significant trend in blood-borne and sexually transmitted infectious diseases,natural epidemics,and insect-borne infectious diseases[AAPC(95%CI)were-1.74%(-4.12-1.14),9.42%(-1.83-21.93),respectively,all P>0.05].There was no significant trend in the incidence rates of notifiable infectious diseases in males and females[AAPC(95%CI)were 0.88%(-2.58-4.42)and 1.65%(-2.30-5.73),respectively,all P>0.05

关 键 词：Joinpoint回归模型 法定报告传染病 发病趋势 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]