系统动力学视角下福利民粹主义和福利沙文主义对希腊政党结构的影响  

Influence of Welfare Populism and Welfare Chauvinism on the Greek Political Party Structure from the Perspective of System Dynamics

作　　者：韩娜 雷雨若[1] 段哲哲[1] HAN Na;LEI Yu-ruo;DUAN Zhe-zhe(School of Government,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518052,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳大学政府管理学院,广东深圳518052

出　　处：《系统科学学报》2025年第1期70-75,共6页Chinese Journal of Systems Science

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金(18BZZ026);广东省普通高校特色创新类项目(哲学社会科学)(2023WTSCX076)。

摘　　要：主权债务危机爆发后,持续的紧缩政策和经济衰退激起希腊民众不满,各种游行罢工纷纷登场,极端多党政体产生。本文结合希腊政党政治生态与希腊福利国家的特点,分析了紧缩背景下政党与选民的互动,认为危机后的福利民粹主义和福利沙文主义共同造成了希腊2009—2019年间政党结构的变化。并建立政党竞争-紧缩系统、执政党-紧缩系统、政党竞争-移民系统、执政党-移民系统,预测福利民粹主义和福利沙文主义在未来15年的发展趋势,且认为前者较后者有强劲的发展势头,应做出相应调整以防范其对希腊政党的进一步“绑架”。The continuous austerity policies and economic recession aroused dissatisfaction among the Greek people after the outbreak of the sovereign debt crisis,and various demonstrations and strikes appeared one after another,and the extreme multi-Party regime came into being.This article combines the political ecology of Greek political Parties and the characteristics of Greek welfare state,analyzes the interaction between political Parties and voters in the context of austerity,and believes that the welfare populism and welfare chauvinism after the crisis have jointly caused the changes in the power of the Greek political Parties from 2009 to 2019.This paper establishes the Party competition-austerity system,the ruling Party-austerity system,the Party competition-immigration system,the ruling Party-immigration system,and predicts the development trend of welfare populism and welfare chauvinism in the next 15 years.It is considered that the former has a stronger momentum of development than the latter,and corresponding adjustments should be made to prevent further“kidnapping”of Greek political parties.

关 键 词：希腊债务危机 福利民粹主义 福利沙文主义 系统动力学 政党结构 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学]