新媒体涉警舆情的动力学仿真与治理对策研究  

Research on Dynamics Simulation and Countermeasures of New Media Police-related Public Opinion

作　　者：张鹏 刘静 兰月新 殷飞 ZHANG Peng;LIU Jing;LAN Yue-xin;YIN Fei(Intelligent Police College,China People's Police University,Langfang 065000,China;Research Center for Network Public Opinion Governance,China People's Police University,Langfang 065000,China;Department of Literature and Law,North China Institute of Aerospace Engineering,Langfang 065000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民警察大学智慧警务学院,河北廊坊065000 [2]中国人民警察大学网络舆情治理研究中心,河北廊坊065000 [3]北华航天工业学院文理学院,河北廊坊065000

出　　处：《系统科学学报》2025年第1期142-148,共7页Chinese Journal of Systems Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“基于大数据的网络舆情全息建模与决策情报感知研究”(20BXW074)。

摘　　要：随着微博等自媒体技术的快速发展,网络言论呈现“百家争鸣”的现象。由于警务部门的特殊性与敏感性,微博涉警舆情一旦出现,将立刻引起广泛关注并迅速成为网络议论的焦点,大量的涉警负面舆情将严重影响警务部门的执法权威与部门公信力。本文通过分析微博平台舆情信息的生成机制与传递途径,深层次挖掘影响微博涉警舆情热度的有关因素,利用系统动力学构建微博涉警舆情仿真模型,并使用Vensim-PLE对“于欢辱母案”进行实例仿真。根据仿真结果可知,通过提高事件的透明度和降低微博大V的关注度可以有效降低微博平台活跃度及舆情扩散度,进而降低微博涉警舆情事件热度,为警务部门处理微博涉警舆情提供决策参考。With the rapid development of we-media technologies such as Weibo,online speech has presented the phenomenon of“a hundred schools of thought contend”.Due to the particularity and sensitivity of the police department,once the police-involved public opinions appear on Weibo,they will immediately attract wide attention and quickly become the focus of network discussions.A large number of police-involved negative public opinions will seriously affect the law enforcement authority and credibility of the police department.By analyzing the generation mechanism and transmission way of public opinion information on Weibo platform,this paper deeply explores the relevant factors affecting the heat of police-involved public opinion on Weibo,builds a simulation model of police-involved public opinion on Weibo by using system dynamics,and conducts an example simulation of“the case of Yu Huan”with Vensim-PLE.According to the simulation results,by improving the transparency of events and reducing the attention of big V on Weibo,the activity of Weibo and the diffusion of public opinion can be effectively reduced so as to reduce the heat of police-involved public opinion events on Weibo and provide decision-making reference for police departments to deal with police-involved public opinion on Weibo.

关 键 词：微博 涉警舆情 系统动力学 模型仿真 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学]