地缘政治风险对经济民生与青年国家认同的影响研究——来自中国香港的证据  

A Study on the Influence of Geopolitical Risks on Economic Livelihood and Youths’National Identity:Evidence from Hong Kong,China

作　　者：冯庆想 徐海波 赖付军 FENG Qing-xiang;XU Hai-bo;LAI Fu-jun(School of Marxism,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Jao Tsung-I Institute of Cultural Studies,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,China;School of Finance,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学马克思主义学院,广东广州510275 [2]深圳大学饶宗颐文化研究院,广东深圳5180603 [3]云南财经大学金融学院,云南昆明650221

出　　处：《系统科学学报》2025年第1期161-167,共7页Chinese Journal of Systems Science

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目“‘一国两制’新形势下增强港澳青少年国家认同研究”(20CKS056)。

摘　　要：地缘政治风险对经济民生与青年国家认同产生不同面向的影响。本文采用1998年至2021年的数据,通过时变参数向量自回归(Time Varying Parameter-Vector Autoregression,TVP-VAR)模型探究中国香港地缘政治风险、经济民生与青年国家认同之间的动态时变系统关系。研究发现,地缘政治风险对中国香港经济民生领域造成的冲击整体上偏向负面,但由于国家积极干预以及特区政府有效应对,中国香港经济社会较快回归正轨,对中国香港青年国家认同产生正向效应。回归以来,面对各种地缘政治事件冲击,祖国内地始终是中国香港最坚强的后盾,是中国香港化解风险、破解难题过程中最重要的力量。因此,必须加强中国香港与内地互动互信、深度合作,防范外部势力干涉中国内政,共同捍卫国家主权、安全和发展利益。Geopolitical risks have different impacts on economic livelihood and youths'national identity.This paper uses data from 1998 to 2021 to explore the dynamic and time-variant relationship among geopolitical risks,economic livelihood,and youths'national identity through the Time Varying Parameter-Vector Autoregression(TVP-VAR)model.The study finds that geopolitical risks have generally negative impacts on Hong Kong China's economy and people's livelihood.However,due to the active intervention of the state and the effective response of the SAR government,Hong Kong China's economy and society quickly returned to normal,which had a positive effect on the national identity of Hong Kong China's youth.Since Hong Kong China was returned to China,in the face of various geopolitical political events,the motherland has always been the strongest backing for Hong Kong China and the most important force in the process of resolving risks and problems in Hong Kong China.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen interaction,mutual trust,and deep cooperation between Hong Kong China and the China's mainland,prevent external forces from interfering in China's internal affairs,and jointly defend national sovereignty,security,and development interests.

关 键 词：地缘政治风险 经济民生 青年国家认同 中国香港 时变参数向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学]