高质量发展下中国奶牛养殖业安全风险与防范——基于创新驱动视角  

Safety Risks and Prevention in China’s Dairy Farming Industry under High-quality Development:Based on an Innovation-driven Perspective

作　　者：许佳彬 白子明 李翠霞[1] XU Jiabin;BAI Ziming;LI Cuixia

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2025年第3期127-144,共18页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“婴幼儿奶粉安全信任指数对产品竞争力的影响——指标测度、关联模型构建及市场模拟”(编号:71673042);中宣部文化名家暨“四个一批”人才自选项目“中国乳制品竞争力比较研究”(编号:201801);黑龙江省哲学社会科学基金专项项目“数字技术驱动黑龙江省农业生产绿色转型的路径与对策研究”(编号:23XZT045)。

摘　　要：高质量发展是“十四五”乃至更长时期经济社会发展的主要议题,坚持高质量发展和高水平安全良性互动为中国奶牛养殖业发展提供重要方向。本文立足高质量发展目标,重塑奶牛养殖业安全内涵,并在分析奶牛养殖业安全所面临的内外部主要风险基础上,从创新驱动视角建立更高层次的奶牛养殖业安全防范体系。研究表明,高质量发展下,奶牛养殖业安全是以满足人民群众对优质奶源需求为导向,充分考虑产业内部两类群体需要,即奶牛生活质量所需和奶牛养殖主体养殖过程的资源所需、收益所需,关注养殖过程的环境负外部性,从而实现产业健康、可持续发展,即“保供给、保质量、保收益、保生态”。通过量化评估奶牛养殖业安全水平发现,奶牛养殖业安全水平总体形势向好,但总体安全水平较低,目前还处于不安全状态,主要面临着资源断供、人畜争粮、倒奶杀牛、环境污染等四方面风险,具体表现形式是奶牛养殖生产要素进口依赖程度持续走高、耗粮数量不断攀升、净利润率增速迟缓、“减污降碳”压力上行。高质量发展目标下,防范奶牛养殖业安全风险要围绕创新驱动发展战略,从制度创新、技术创新、管理创新、服务创新四个方面,建立长效机制,主攻核心技术,激发内生动力,调动市场参与,全方位夯实产业根基,保障奶牛养殖业安全。High-quality development is the main topic of economic and social development during the 14th Five Year Plan and an even longer period.Adhering to the interaction between high-quality development and high-level safety provides an important direction for the development of China’s dairy farming industry.This article is based on the goal of high-quality development,reshaping the safety connotation of the dairy industry,and based on the analysis of the main internal and external safety risks faced by the dairy farming industry,establishing a higher-level safety and protection system for the dairy farming industry based on an innovation-driven perspective.Research has shown that under highquality development,the safety of the dairy farming industry is guided by meeting the people’s demand for high-quality milk sources,fully considering the needs of two groups within the industry,namely the quality of life of cattle and the resources and benefits required by the dairy farming entities in the breed ing process.It pays attention to the environmental negative externalities of the breeding process,thus a chieving healthy and sustainable development of the industry,that is,“ensuring supply,quality,income,and ecology”.Through quantitative evaluation of the safety level of the dairy farming industry,it is found that the overall situation of the safety level of the dairy farming industry is improving,but the o verall safety level is relatively low.Currently,it is still in an unsafe state,mainly facing four risks:re source supply interruption,competition between humans and animals for food,milk dumping and cattlekilling,and environmental pollution.The specific manifestations are the continuous increase in the import dependence of production factors for dairy farming,the continuous increase in grain consumption,and the slow growth of net profit margin.The pressure of“reducing pollution and carbon emissions”is rising.Under the goal of high-quality development,to prevent safety risks in the dairy farming industry,we n

关 键 词：奶牛养殖业安全 风险防范 高质量发展 创新驱动 

分 类 号：S85[农业科学—兽医学]