地方债的稳就业效应:来自中小银行专项债的证据  

Stable Employment Effect of Local Government Debt:Evidence from Revenue Bonds of Small and Medium-sized Banks

作　　者：毛捷[1] 任占尚 MAO Jie;REN Zhanshang(School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2025年第3期26-46,共21页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(23VRC045);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72473016)的资助

摘　　要：就业是最大的民生工程。地方政府专项债作为落实积极财政政策的重要抓手,对于带动有效投资、稳定就业具有重要意义。本文从财政金融协同联动的视角切入,基于中小银行专项债项目数据和新三板中小企业数据,采用交叠双重差分法实证检验了中小银行专项债对企业劳动雇佣规模的影响。研究发现,中小银行专项债具有显著的就业促进效应。机制分析结果表明,中小银行专项债可以通过缓解企业面临的融资约束、改善市场主体预期促进就业。拓展分析结果表明,中小银行专项债对中小企业,特别是专精特新中小企业的人力资本结构优化起到了积极作用。投向分析表明,支持农村金融机构的专项债在促进就业方面相较于支持城市商业银行的专项债发挥了更明显的效应。本文研究结论为财政金融协同防范化解重大风险、稳市场主体保就业提供了参考。The implementation of the employment priority strategy is an important deployment made at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.As an important component of the market economy,small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)are the foundation for stabilizing employment.Under the pressure of the economic downturn,SMEs are facing challenges such as weak market demand and tight funding chains.In recent years,small and medium-sized banks,as the main lenders of SMEs,have seen a decline in their capital adequacy ratio and limited ability to serve SMEs,which has affected their employment absorption capacity.Therefore,alleviating the capital shortage of small and medium-sized banks and assisting SMEs in absorbing employment are essential aspects of high-quality development.In this context,the government allows revenue bonds to reasonably support small and medium-sized banks to replenish their capital.Can this policy achieve the goal of stabilizing employment?Based on listed companies on China’s New Third Board from 2015 to 2023,this study examines the impact and mechanism of revenue bonds of small and medium-sized banks on the scale of labor employment by using the staggered difference-in-differences method(staggered DID)to determine the differences in the issuance time of revenue bonds of small and medium-sized banks in different cities.The study finds that the revenue bonds of small and medium-sized banks significantly increase the employment scale of processing group enterprises,and this conclusion is robust.Mechanism analysis reveals that these bonds alleviate the financing constraints of firms and improve market expectations,thereby promoting employment.This study further analyzes the impact of revenue bonds issued by small and medium-sized banks on the human capital structure of enterprises.The findings reveal that these bonds have facilitated the optimization of the human capital structure in SMEs,particularly in specialized and innovative SMEs.An analysis of the allocation of funds reveals that rev

关 键 词：中小银行专项债 就业 融资约束 财政金融协同 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]