基于LCA-SD的老旧小区海绵化改造碳减排效益评价  

Evaluation of Carbon Emission Reduction Benefits from Sponge City Renovation of Old Residential Areas Using LCA-SD Model

作　　者：陈菊香 李国荣 孙亮 热依娜·阿斯哈尔 孟诗 CHEN Ju-xiang;LI Guo-rong;SUN Liang;ASIHAER Re-yina;MENG Shi(College of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830000,China;Urumqi Urban Comprehensive Transportation Project Research Center,Urumqi 830000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学建筑工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000 [2]乌鲁木齐市城市综合交通项目研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《中国给水排水》2025年第5期115-122,共8页China Water & Wastewater

基　　金：新疆乌鲁木齐市建设局项目(202309140006)。

摘　　要：老旧小区海绵化改造是海绵城市建设的重要组成部分,研究其碳减排效益的评价方法及碳减排量的测算模型对实现碳中和具有重要意义。为此,构建了适用于老旧小区海绵化改造过程中碳减排核算及效益评价的全生命周期评价(LCA)模型和基于全生命周期理论的系统动力学(LCA-SD)模型。以W市某老旧小区的海绵化改造项目为例,通过实际数据验证LCA-SD模型仿真的可靠性,并对该案例的碳减排量进行核算。通过LCA核算模型发现,老旧小区海绵化改造过程产生的最大碳排放量发生在施工阶段,占该项目碳排放总量的48.8%,最大碳汇量来源于雨水净化阶段;LCA-SD模型具备仿真模拟的可靠性,可对老旧小区海绵化改造项目的碳排放量及碳汇量变化进行模拟与预测;在LCA-SD模型中,碳汇的主要来源是城市绿地碳循环系统,预测该项目将于2039年实现碳中和;LCA-SD模型核算的碳排放量及碳汇量结果均大于LCA模型。The sponge city renovation of old residential areas constitutes a critical component of sponge city construction.Investigating the evaluation methodology for carbon emission reduction benefits and developing an accounting model for carbon emission reduction are essential for achieving carbon neutrality.In this study,the life cycle assessment(LCA)model and the system dynamics(SD)model based on the theory of LCA(LCA-SD),were developed to quantify carbon emission reduction and evaluate benefits during the sponge city renovation of old residential areas.The reliability of the LCA-SD model was validated using empirical data from a sponge city renovation project of an old residential area in W city.Additionally,the carbon emission reduction achieved through this project was quantified.Through the LCA model,it was determined that the construction phase of the renovation process for the old residential area generated the highest carbon emission,accounting for 48.8%of the project's total carbon emission.The most significant carbon sink was associated with the rainwater purification stage.The LCASD model demonstrated reliable simulation capabilities,enabling accurate projections of carbon emission and carbon sink change resulting from sponge city renovation projects in old residential areas.In the LCA-SD model,the primary source of carbon sink originated from the urban green space carbon cycle system,which was projected to achieve carbon neutrality by 2039.Additionally,the carbon emission and carbon sink derived from the LCA-SD model were significantly higher than those obtained from the LCA model.

关 键 词：碳减排核算 老旧小区 海绵化改造 全生命周期评价模型 系统动力学模型 

分 类 号：TU992[建筑科学—市政工程]