日本政府债务和经济发展的持久博弈与经验分析  

The Enduring Game and Experience Analysis of Japanese Government Debt and Economic Development

作　　者：张艾莲[1] 吴崎菲 ZHANG Ailian;WU Qifei(School of Business and Management,Jilin University,Changchun,Jilin,130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学与管理学院,司吉林长春130012

出　　处：《现代日本经济》2025年第2期12-24,共13页Contemporary Economy OF Japan

摘　　要：在日本经济发展的不同阶段,债务布局表现各不相同。经济快速增长期间债务推动经济,经济低迷期间债务掣肘经济。在债务管理和经济政策的协调下,政府债务和经济发展之间的引致关系和制约作用长期交互。债务通过社会投资和货币信用两条途径影响经济表现;经济发展通过财政收入和财政支出两条途径影响债务变化。政府债务和经济发展的博弈过程主要受到财政支出结构、经济周期和市场利率水平的影响。博弈过程中不断累积的财政风险和金融风险成为日本经济发展的隐患。但是由于日本化解债务措施的实施,日本债务和经济状况并未陷至危机状态。债务和经济发展的持久博弈意味着政府要保持供求关系的动态均衡性,优化债务结构和合理规划化解债务方案。At different stages of Japan's economic development,the performance of debt distribution is different.Debt drives the economy during rapid growth and holds it back during downturns.Under the coordination of debt management and economic policy,the causal relationship and constraining effect between government debt and economic development interact over the long term.Debt affects economic performance through social investment and monetary credit.Economic development affects debt changes through fiscal revenue and fiscal expenditure.The game process between government debt and economic development is mainly affected by fiscal expenditure structure,economic cycle and market interest rate.The fiscal and financial risks that accumulate continuously during the game process have become a major hidden danger for Japan's economic development.However,due to the implementation of Japan's debt resolution measures,Japan's debt and economic situation has not fallen into a crisis state.The persistent game between debt and economic growth means that the government should maintain the dynamic balance of supply and demand,optimize the debt structure and make reasonable plans to resolve debt.

关 键 词：日本经济 政府债务 博弈关系 经济政策 经济发展 化债效果 

分 类 号：F133.133.9[经济管理—世界经济]