欧亚地区国家人工智能发展:因素、风险和中国机遇  

Development of Artificial Intelligence in Eurasian Countries:Factors,Risks,and Opportunities for China

作　　者：基里尔·鲁德 陈胜男(翻译) K.V.Rudy

机构地区：[1]白俄罗斯国立大学 [2]郑州大学外国语与国际关系学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2025年第1期5-23,共19页Russian Studies

摘　　要：本文以2020—2024年欧亚地区20个国家的数据为基础,运用相关回归分析方法,深入探讨了影响区域人工智能发展的关键因素,包括技术基础设施建设、经济发展水平以及科研投入水平。通过分别对白俄罗斯119名和530名受访者开展的两次社会调查,我们对2040年之前的国家风险进行了系统排序,涵盖调控风险、地缘政治风险、经济风险、社会风险、技术风险和生态风险,其中调控风险被认为是最易发生的。此外,我们依据8项政治、经济和技术指标,对欧亚地区各国在人工智能领域对中国的商业吸引力进行了综合排名,结果显示爱沙尼亚位居榜首。研究指出,欧亚地区国家人工智能发展的准备情况与经济发展水平密切相关,而国家在人工智能发展中的作用有限,私营部门更倾向于依靠自身力量发展人工智能。同时,欧亚地区各国政府在制定人工智能发展战略时存在目标不明确、执行期限不合理、缺乏金融机制等问题。尽管如此,欧亚地区国家的人工智能发展战略目标与风险为中国提供了诸多机遇,包括地缘政治分组、行业专业化合作、基础设施建设项目以及阶段性投资机会。研究最终得出结论,欧亚地区国家人工智能发展的中国视角具有明显的国家和地区特色,中国在该地区的人工智能合作机遇与挑战并存。Based on data from 20 Eurasian countries spanning 2020 to 2024,this paper employs regression analysis methods to thoroughly investigate the key factors influencing the development of regional artificial intelligence.These factors include technological infrastructure construction,economic development level,and research investment.Two separate social surveys,one with 119 respondents and the other with 530 respondents from Belarus,were conducted to systematically rank national risks prior to 2040.The risks assessed include regulatory risk,geopolitical risk,economic risk,social risk,technological risk,and ecological risk,with regulatory risk identified as the most likely to occur.Furthermore,according to eight political,economic,and technological indicators,a comprehensive ranking of the commercial attractiveness of Eurasian countries to China in the field of artificial intelligence was conducted,with Estonia emerging as the top candidate.The study indicates that the preparedness of Eurasian countries for AI development is closely tied to their economic development level,while the role of the state in AI development is limited,as the private sector tends to rely more on its own capabilities.Additionally,governments in the Eurasian region face challenges in formulating AI development strategies,such as unclear objectives,unreasonable implementation timeframes,and a lack of financial mechanisms.Nonetheless,the strategic goals and risks associated with AI development in Eurasian countries present numerous opportunities for China,including geopolitical groupings,industry-specific cooperation,infrastructure construction projects,and phased investment opportunities.The study ultimately concludes that China's perspective on AI development in Eurasian countries exhibits distinct national and regional characteristics,with both opportunities and challenges coexisting in its cooperation in this field.

关 键 词：人工智能 技术基础设施 经济发展水平 欧亚地区研究 “一带一路”倡议 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]