冲突和制裁下俄罗斯与盟友的经济合作:以哈萨克斯坦为例  

Economic Cooperation between Russia and Its Allies under Conflict and Sanctions:A Case Study of Kazakhstan

作　　者：曲文轶 贾鹏悦 Qu Wenyi;Jia Pengyue

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学俄罗斯研究中心 [2]华东师范大学政治与国际关系学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯研究》2025年第1期85-124,共40页Russian Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地华东师范大学俄罗斯研究中心重大项目“俄乌冲突、经济制裁与俄罗斯经济转型研究”(项目批准号:22JJD810008)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：俄乌冲突以及随之而来的全面制裁对俄罗斯经济发展施加了严酷约束。本文以哈萨克斯坦为例,研究俄罗斯与其盟友的经济合作动态。研究发现,与悲观预期相反,俄乌冲突后,俄罗斯与哈萨克斯坦在贸易和投资领域往来大幅增强,传统的原材料依赖模式被颠覆,合作产业的多样化程度大幅提高。俄哈经贸合作之所以能在严峻的外部环境下提质增效,主要是因为俄方利用盟友作为贸易中介以及资本和人才外逃的目的地,而在大变局下主动布局战略资产也是俄罗斯扩大对哈投资一个重要因素。哈国得以成功承接俄方需求,主要得益于托卡耶夫政府在努力创造良好营商环境的同时,灵巧平衡与俄和西方的关系,从而为在动荡时期发挥自身优势开展对俄合作创造了有利的政经条件。The Russia-Ukraine conflict and the ensuing comprehensive sanctions have imposed severe constraints on Russia's economic development.This paper takes Kazakhstan as a case study to examine the dynamics of economic cooperation between Russia and its allies.The study finds that,contrary to pessimistic expectations,trade and investment between Russia and Kazakhstan have significantly increased following the Russia-Ukraine conflict.The traditional reliance on raw materials has been disrupted,and the degree of diversification in cooperative industries has markedly improved.The enhancement in the quality and efficiency of Russia-Kazakhstan economic and trade cooperation under challenging external conditions is mainly attributed to Russia's strategy of taking its allies as intermediaries for trade,as well as destinations for capital and talent outflows.Additionally,the proactive deployment of strategic assets in times of significant change has been a key factor driving Russia to expand its investments in Kazakhstan.Kazakhstan has successfully met Russian demands primarily due to the Tokayev government's efforts in creating a favorable business environment while skillfully balancing its relations with both Russia and the West,thereby establishing advantageous political and economic conditions to leverage its strengths in cooperation with Russia during turbulent times.

关 键 词：俄哈经贸合作 俄乌冲突 经济制裁 规避制裁 欧亚经济一体化 

分 类 号：D812[政治法律—国际关系]