1961-2020年青藏高原作物生长季气象干旱时空变化特征  

Temporal and spatial variation characteristics of meteorological drought in the crop growing season in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1961 to 2020

作　　者：王姝 车路鹏 朱红秀 王明田 WANG Shu;CHE Lupeng;ZHU Hongxiu;WANG Mingtian(Sichuan Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center,Chengdu 610071,China;Meteorological Bureau of Guanghan County,Guanghan 618300,China;Meteorological Bureau of Mianning County,Liangshan 615600,China;Water-Saving Agriculture Research in Southern Hilly Area Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610066,China;Sichuan Meteorological Observatory,Chengdu 610072,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省气象灾害防御技术中心,成都610071 [2]广汉市气象局,广汉市618300 [3]冕宁县气象局,凉山615600 [4]南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室,成都610066 [5]四川省气象台,成都610071

出　　处：《应用与环境生物学报》2024年第6期1093-1100,共8页Chinese Journal of Applied and Environmental Biology

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0303);国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFD1002202)资助。

摘　　要：青藏高原是全球气候变化最敏感的地区之一,分析其近年来干旱强度的分布以及变化趋势,可为青藏高原农业建设规划提供参考.运用气象站点逐日观测数据,基于气象干旱综合指数(MCI),计算青藏高原1961-2020年作物生长季(4-10月)月尺度和年尺度干旱强度,分析青藏高原干旱事件发生频率、时空分布和变化趋势.结果显示:青藏高原5月干旱发生频率和干旱强度最高,其次为4月、6月,4-6月干旱强度高值区主要分布在唐古拉山东缘—横断山脉地区、柴达木盆地—祁连山东部地区、帕米尔高原—昆仑山脉地区,以及西藏中部和南部零星区域,6月高值区较4月有所西移;4-7月青藏高原干旱强度大部分地区为增强趋势,8-10月大部分地区为减弱趋势;年尺度干旱强度横断山脉南部—念青唐古拉山东部、松潘高原北部、西藏中南部零星地区显著增强,帕米尔高原—昆仑山脉西部、柴达木盆地—横断山脉西北部呈减弱趋势;突变检验显示念青唐古拉山东部—横断山脉南部区域、西藏中南部皆在2009年存在干旱显著增强的突变点.本研究表明青藏高原5月干旱发生频率和干旱强度最高,青藏高原南部与北部干旱强度较高,各地区在各月的干旱强度变化趋势差异明显.The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is one of the most sensitive areas to global climate change.This study analyzed the distribution of drought intensity and changing trends in recent years to provide a reference for agricultural construction planning in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.Using daily observation data from meteorological stations and a meteorological drought composite index(MCI),the monthly and annual drought intensity during the crop growth season(from April to October)on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1961 to 2020 was calculated,and the frequency,spatial distribution characteristics,and temporal trends of the drought events were analyzed.The results showed that the drought frequency and intensity on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau were the highest in May,followed by April and June.The high-value areas were mainly distributed in the eastern edge of Tanggula Mountain to Hengduan Mountains,the Qaidam Basin to the eastern Qilian Mountains,the Pamir Plateau to Kunlun Mountains,and the central and southern parts of Xizang.The high-value areas in June moved westward compared with April;from April to July,the drought intensity in most areas of the QinghaiXizang Plateau showed an increasing trend,while from August to October,most areas showed a weakening trend.On an annual scale,the drought intensity in the southwestern Hengduan Mountains to the eastern part of Nianqing Tanggula Mountain),the northern part of Songpan Plateau,and the central and southern sporadic areas of Xizang increased significantly.A decreasing drought intensity trend was observed in the Pamir Plateau to the western Kunlun Mountains and the Qaidam Basin to the northwestern part of Hengduan Mountains.The mutation test showed that there was a mutation point in 2009 when the drought was significantly enhanced in the southern Hengduan Mountains to the eastern part of Nianqing Tanggula Mountain and the central and southern parts of Xizang.In conclusion,the frequency and intensity of droughts in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau were highest in May,with the highest in

关 键 词：青藏高原 干旱强度 气象干旱综合指数 时空变化 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]