全日面机器学习耀斑业务预报  

Machine Learning Solar Full Disk Flare Operational Forecasting

作　　者：李铭 崔延美[1,3] 罗冰显 LI Ming;CUI Yanmei;LUO Bingxian(State Key Laboratory of Space Weather,National Space Science Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;Key Laboratory of Science and Technology on Environment Space Situation Awareness,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院国家空间科学中心空间天气学国家重点实验室,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]中国科学院空间环境态势感知技术重点实验室,北京100190

出　　处：《空间科学学报》2025年第1期82-90,共9页Chinese Journal of Space Science

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDB0560000);国家自然科学基金项目(42074224);中国科学院国家空间科学中心“攀登计划”项目共同资助。

摘　　要：太阳耀斑预报是空间环境预报中的一项重要内容.目前所构建的深度学习耀斑预报模型大都是基于活动区磁图构建的.受到投影效应的影响,这类模型仅能对太阳中心区域的活动区进行预报,难以满足全日面耀斑业务预报的需求.基于太阳活动传统参量,研究统计了活动区磁类型、面积,耀斑爆发历史以及F_(10.7)与耀斑发生的关系,利用全连接神经网络构建了适用于全日面活动区的太阳耀斑业务预报模型,该模型可以预报未来48 h内活动区≥M级耀斑的爆发情况.该模型与已往搭建的深度学习预报模型进行比较,结果表明本文建立的业务预报模型预报性能略优.同时,结果表明投影效应对本研究搭建的耀斑预报模型影响不大.该模型为耀斑业务预报提供了有效工具.Solar flare forecasting is an essential component in space environment forecasting.Most of the deep learning flare forecasting models constructed are based on the magnetograms of active regions.Affected by the projection effect,these models can only forecast the active region in the center of the Sun.It is difficult to meet the need of operational flare forecasting of the solar full disk.Based on the traditional solar activity parameters,in this study,the relationships between the magnetic type of the active region,area of the active region,the history of the flare outburst,the 10 cm radio flux and flares from January 1996 to December 2022 were statistically analyzed.By using the fully connected neural network,an operational flare forecasting model for solar full disk active regions was constructed.This model can forecast the eruption of the M-class or above flares of the full solar disk active regions in the next 48 h.The F1 score of the model is 0.4304,the TSS is 0.3689,and the HSS is 0.3906.The model is compared with the deep learning flare forecasting model constructed in the previous work,and the results show that the operational forecasting model constructed in this paper has a better forecasting performance.Meanwhile,in order to explore the influence of the projection effect,the solar full disk active regions flare forecasting model constructed was tested for test data within 30 degrees from the center of the solar disk,within the interval from 30 degrees to 60 degrees,and over 60 degrees,respectively.The results show that the projection effect has little influence on the flare forecast model constructed in this study.The model can be used to forecast flare in the active region of the full solar disk,and provide an effective tool for operational solar flare forecasting.

关 键 词：耀斑 业务预报 机器学习 全日面活动区 

分 类 号：P353[天文地球—空间物理学]