基于MaxEnt模型的西藏地区苹果绵蚜适生性预测  

Potential Distribution of Eriosoma lanigerum in Tibet, China Based on the MaxEnt Model

作　　者：谭仲恺 李永萍[1] 李燕[2] 陈旭 刘晓飞 Tan Zhongkai;Li Yongping;Li Yan;Chen Xu;Liu Xiaofei(Institute of Resource Plant,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,Yunnan,China;Yunnan Plant Protection and Plant Inspection Station,Kunming 650034,Yunnan,China;Yunnan Institute of Forest Inventory and Planning,Kunming 650051,Yunnan,China;Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学资源植物研究院,云南昆明650091 [2]云南省植保植检站,云南昆明650034 [3]云南省林业调查规划院,云南昆明650051 [4]云南大学国际河流与生态安全研究院,云南昆明650091

出　　处：《山地农业生物学报》2025年第2期51-55,共5页Journal of Mountain Agriculture and Biology

基　　金：云南省兴滇英才计划项目(YNWR-QNBJ-2020098)。

摘　　要：苹果绵蚜Eriosoma lanigerum(Hausmann)是世界范围内普遍关注的检疫性有害生物,也是入侵西藏的典型外来物种之一,严重威胁着当地的农业生产和生态安全。本研究基于MaxEnt模型对西藏自治区范围内苹果绵蚜的适生区分布及随全球气候变化的发展趋势进行了分析,摸清了西藏境内苹果绵蚜的适生指数随海拔变化的规律。结果显示:西藏东部的澜沧江河谷、怒江河谷、金沙江河谷以及位于自治区中南部的雅鲁藏布江河谷地区均为苹果绵蚜适生度较高的地区,其中,海拔3000~4000 m的地区是西藏苹果绵蚜定殖的高风险区域。在全球气候变化的影响下,西藏境内苹果绵蚜适生区面积呈现出明显增加的趋势,海拔3000 m以上的苹果种植区应作为未来西藏苹果绵蚜疫情防控的重点地区。The apple woolly aphid,Eriosoma lanigerum(Hausmann),is a quarantine pest that has been paid close attention to all over the world,and one of the typical invasive alien species invading Tibet,posing a severe threat to local agricultural production and ecological security.Based on the MaxEnt model,the suitability distribution and its developing trend under global climate change of E.lanigerum in Tibet Autonomous region were analyzed in this paper.It also investigates the relationship between the habitat suitability index of E.lanigerum and elevation in Tibet.The results showed that the Lancang River Valley,Nujiang River Valley and Jinsha River Valley in eastern Tibet,and the Yarlung Zangbo River valley in the central and southern part of the autonomous region were all areas with high fitness for E.lanigerum.Among these,the regions at an altitude of 3000~4000 m was high-risk area for the colonization of E.lanigerum in Tibet.Under the influence of global climate change,the suitable area of E.lanigerum in Tibet was increasing obviously.The apple-growing areas above 3000 m in altitude should be regarded as the key area for the prevention and control of this pest in Tibet in the future.

关 键 词：苹果绵蚜 西藏 适生区 MAXENT 气候变化 

分 类 号：S4[农业科学—植物保护]