PM_(2.5)和O_(3)污染协同控制的健康效益评估:以我国4个直辖市为例  

Assessment of Health Benefits of Coordinated Control of PM_(2.5) and O_(3) Pollution:A Case Study of China's Four Municipalities

作　　者：陈勃昊 叶欣[2,3] 汤维祺 吴力波 钱浩祺[2,3] CHEN Bohao;YE Xin;TANG Weiqi;WU Libo;QIAN Haoqi(Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity,Shanghai 200433,China;Institute for Global Public Policy,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;LSE-Fudan Research Centre for Global Public Policy,Shanghai 200433,China;Fudan Development Institute,Shanghai 200433,China;School of Economics,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;Institute of Big Data,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市重大传染病与生物安全研究院,上海200433 [2]复旦大学全球公共政策研究院,上海200433 [3]复旦-LSE全球公共政策研究中心,上海200433 [4]复旦大学发展研究院,上海200433 [5]复旦大学经济学院,上海200433 [6]复旦大学大数据研究院,上海200433

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2025年第3期510-523,共14页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(No.71925010,72322013,72243008)。

摘　　要：以细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))和臭氧(O_(3))为代表的大气污染物对人体健康产生了严重危害。本文分析了2013−2020年我国4个直辖市(北京市、上海市、天津市、重庆市)归因于PM_(2.5)和O_(3)污染的健康效益损失,并估算了2030−2100年由联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)提出的4种共享社会经济路径(SSPs)与温升(RCPs)组合情景(包括SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景)下,各直辖市PM_(2.5)和O_(3)协同减排所导致的健康效益。结果表明:①4个直辖市归因于PM_(2.5)污染的早死人数均显著下降。除重庆市外,其余3个直辖市归因于PM_(2.5)污染的经济损失呈现下降趋势。②4个直辖市归因于O_(3)污染的早死人数和经济损失均呈现显著上升趋势。在区县层级,北京市朝阳区、上海市浦东新区和天津市滨海新区归因于O_(3)污染的早死人数和经济损失较为突出,而重庆市各区县整体经济损失变化幅度较为平缓。③相较于基准情景,未来4种情景下各直辖市PM_(2.5)健康效益均呈现波动上升趋势,SSP3-7.0情景下2075年首次获得健康效益。SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下,各直辖市始终存在O_(3)的健康效益损失;SSP1-2.6和SSP2-4.5情景下,O_(3)的健康效益呈现波动上升。因此,建议我国现阶段应不断加强PM_(2.5)和O_(3)污染协同控制,强化污染治理的力度和政策资源支持,不断提升空气污染治理的健康效益。Atmospheric pollutants such as fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))and ozone(O_(3))are seriously harm to human health.To assess the health benefit losses caused by PM_(2.5) and O_(3),we analyzed the health benefit losses attributable to PM_(2.5) and O_(3) pollution in municipalities in China from 2013 to 2020,and estimated the health benefits of PM_(2.5) and O_(3) generated by municipalities affected by the synergistic emission reduction policies under the four Combined Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)-Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs)scenarios(include SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5)proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)for the period 2030-2100.The results showed that the number of premature deaths caused by PM_(2.5) pollution in all municipalities decreased significantly.With the exception of Chongqing,the economic losses caused by PM_(2.5) pollution in other municipalities showed a downward trend.Conversely,the number of premature deaths and economic losses caused by O_(3) pollution showed a significant upward trend in all municipalities.At the district and county levels,the number of premature deaths and economic losses caused by O_(3) pollution in Beijing′s Chaoyang District,Shanghai′s Pudong New Area and Tianjin′s Binhai New Area were more prominent,while the overall economic losses of all districts and counties in Chongqing remained relatively stable.Compared with the baseline scenario,the health benefits of PM_(2.5) in all municipalities under the four SSPs showed a fluctuating upward trend,with health benefits gained in 2075 in SSP3-7.0.In SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5,the health benefits of O_(3) constantly showed a loss of in the municipalities,while the health benefits of O_(3) showed a fluctuating increase in SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5.Therefore,China should continue to strengthen the coordinated control of PM_(2.5) and O_(3) pollution,pay attention to the formulation of differentiated pollutant control and health benefit policies for different regions,further stre

关 键 词：PM_(2.5) 臭氧(O_(3)) 空气污染 直辖市 健康效益 

分 类 号：X511[环境科学与工程—环境工程]