2024年广东省中晚熟荔枝成花差异气候成因分析  

Analysis on the Climatic Causes of the Differences in Floral Formation of Mid-late Maturing Litchi in Guangdong Province in 2024

作　　者：张柳红 张羽 柳晔[1] 向渟 陈达强 ZHANG Liuhong;ZHANG Yu;LIU Ye;XIANG Ting;CHEN Daqiang(Climate Center of Guangdong Province,Guangzhou 510641,China;Zhanjiang Meteorological Service,Zhanjiang 524499,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省气候中心,广东广州510641 [2]湛江市气象局,广东湛江524499

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2025年第1期95-107,共13页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：广东省基础与应用基础研究基金气象联合基金(2024A1515510034);广东省气象局科技项目(GRMC2023M15);广东省气候中心科研项目(QH202413)。

摘　　要：【目的】荔枝成花与否是决定荔枝产量高低的关键环节。2024年广东省荔枝产区中晚熟荔枝出现花质差、少花甚至无花的现象,导致荔枝产量出现超级小年。探明气候条件对中晚熟荔枝成花的影响和制约作用,可为荔枝生产有效规避风险提供科学依据,推动荔枝产业在复杂多变的气候环境下实现可持续发展。【方法】利用2023年11月至2024年2月广东省6个国家气象站逐日观测资料和荔枝成花率数据,从气温、光照、水分3个方面分析广东省粤西廉江和高州、珠三角增城和东莞、粤东惠来和饶平共6个典型荔枝产区中晚熟荔枝花芽分化期气候条件,对比分析其成花率差别与气候条件的关系。【结果】在广东省中晚熟荔枝成花关键期,典型荔枝产区出现气温偏高且变率大、低温迟且间隔长、热积累量过高、日照偏少且寡照突出、成花后期降水不足等情况,导致荔枝无花少花。6个典型荔枝产区水分条件总体差别不大,但温度和光照条件差异明显,表明温光条件对2024年广东省中晚熟荔枝无花少花的制约大于水分条件。饶平‘桂味’‘糯米糍’等传统优质中晚熟荔枝成花率超7成,其余区域不足2成,与其气候条件较好有关。具体指标为日平均气温低于19.0℃的天数最多、达92 d,日平均气温低于14.0℃的天数次多、为30 d,日最高气温高于25.0℃的天数最少、仅29 d,极端低温3.0~4.0℃且持续不超过3 d,日最低气温高于22.0℃的热积累量最少、仅22.2℃,日照时数较近5年同期偏多、占2成以上,且寡照天气最少、仅13 d,12月下旬至次年1月下旬降水量少于15 mm、2月上旬和中旬降水量超过15 mm。未来在开展荔枝产量与气候条件的关系研究、荔枝果园生产管理等工作时可考虑上述因素。同等气候条件下,东莞、惠来等地‘桂味’‘糯米糍’等需冷量高的品种成花率不足2成,而‘观音绿’‘岭�【Objective】Whether the litchi trees form flowers is a key determinant of litchi yield.In 2024,in the litchiproducing areas of Guangdong Province,phenomena such as poor flower quality,reduced flowers or even complete absence of blossoms occurred in mid-late maturing litchi,resulting in an extremely low-yield year for litchi,marking a“super off-year”for lychee production.Exploring the influence and restriction of climate condition on the floral initiation of mid-late maturing litchi can furnish a scientific basis for effectively circumventing risks in litchi production,thereby promoting the sustainable development of litchi industry within the context of a complex and changeable climate environment.【Method】The daily observation data from six national meteorological stations in Guangdong Province from November 2023 to February 2024 and the data on the floral formation rate of litchi were used in this study.The climate conditions during the flower differentiation period of mid-late maturing litchi in six typical regions in the litchi-producing areas of Guangdong Province,namely,Lianjiang and Gaozhou in western Guangdong,Zengcheng and Dongguan in the Pearl River Delta,and Huilai and Raoping in eastern Guangdong,were analyzed from three aspects:temperature,sunlight,and moisture.The relationship between the differences in the floral formation rate of litchi and the climate conditions was compared and analyzed.【Result】During the critical period for the floral formation of mid-late maturing litchi in the litchi-producing areas of Guangdong Province,there were situations such as relatively high temperatures with large variability,late occurrence of low temperatures and long intervals between them,excessive accumulated heat,less sunlight with prominent periods of low light intensity,and insufficient precipitation in the later stage of floral formation,which led to few or no flowers on litchi.There was generally little difference in moisture conditions,but significant differences in temperature and sunlight c

关 键 词：荔枝 花芽分化 中晚熟 气温 光照 水分 广东 

分 类 号：S667.1[农业科学—果树学] P49[农业科学—园艺学]