海岸带高潮位所致洪水发生几率预测——以江苏沿海长期海潮观测为例  

Prediction of high-tide induced coastal flooding probability.A case study of Jiangsu coast with long-term observations

作　　者：刘苏宁 冯曦 郭东升 LIU Suning;FENG Xi;GUO Dongsheng(Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Coastal Disaster and Protection,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Harbor,Coastal and Offshore Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Key Laboratory of Port,Waterway&Sedimentation Engineering Ministry of Communications,PRC,Nanjing 210029,China;Shanghai Mudflat Ecological Development Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200125,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学海岸灾害及防护教育部重点实验室,南京210098 [2]河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院,南京210098 [3]港口航道泥沙工程交通行业重点实验室,南京210029 [4]上海市滩涂生态发展有限公司,上海200125

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2025年第3期99-108,共10页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3007900);港口航道泥沙工程交通行业重点实验室开放课题(YK223001-3);江苏省水利科技项目(2022023)。

摘　　要：全球变暖导致海平面加速上升已成为人类社会面临的重大挑战,过去须由风暴潮触发的海岸带淹没灾害,未来可能在天文大潮主导下即可发生。本文通过江苏沿海长期潮位站(连云港和吕四)的历史观测潮位数据,系统分析了海岸带高潮位所致洪水(HTF)的发生规律。研究首先建立了HTF发生天数和可能引发海岸洪水的超阈值水位之间的关系,其次探究了上述统计方法对于超阈值水位取值范畴、样本总量、样本时间序列连续性,以及相对海平面上升速率的敏感性。结果表明:所建立的HTF天数预测模型较稳定;当确定超阈值水位(通常依据行业标准)后,HTF发生频次对于超阈值水位的取值范畴并不敏感;而随着实测数据样本量的增加(大于等于14年逐时潮位),未来HTF的预测结果趋向稳定,预测结果对于样本年份的连续性、时序性均不再敏感;最后,相对吕四港,连云港站对于海平面上升速率更为敏感。本研究主要方法和结论可为江苏至中国沿海应对未来由海平面变化主导的淹没灾害提供理论支撑。Rapid sea level rise caused by global warming presents a significant contemporary challenge for humanity.Anticipated mild coastal inundation events triggered by previous storm surges are projected to reoccur in forthcoming astronomical spring periods.Through a systematical analysis of the historical tidal data from long-term monitoring stations along the Jiangsu's coastline(Lianyungang and Lusi),this paper first establishes a correlation between the occurrence of high-tide-flooding(HTF)along the coastal zone and the water levels above the thresholds that can trigger coastal flooding.Then,we examine how these statistical methodologies affect the results of threshold exceedance categories for HTFs,total sample sizes,temporal continuity within sample time series,and their sensitivity to relative sea-level-rise rates.The results demonstrate that the established model in order to predict the number of HTF days with high water levels exhibits good stability,and the HTF occurrence frequencies are insensitive to different threshold categories at the determined water levels exceeding the industry-standard thresholds.An increase in the sample data size spanning at least 14 years'hourly tidal measurements leads to more stabilized predictions of the future HTFs—rendering them less reliant on temporal consistency or duration within the years sampled.A comparative analysis reveals heightened responsiveness to the sea level rise rate at the Lianyungang station compared with Lusi Port.This study offers methodologies and conclusions useful for the Jiangsu coast and other coasts of China to prepare for coastal inundation stemming from sea level rise.

关 键 词：海平面上升 海岸洪水 高潮位 天文大潮 样本分析 

分 类 号：TV12[水利工程—水文学及水资源]