湖南省粮食产量影响因素分析及预测  

The Analysis and Prediction of Influencing Factors of the Grain Yield in Hunan Province

作　　者：柳宇航 刘家希 彭艳 LIU Yu-hang;LIU Jia-xi;PENG Yan(College of Information and Intelligence,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128,PRC;College of Agronomy,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128,PRC)

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学信息与智能科学技术学院,湖南长沙410128 [2]湖南农业大学农学院,湖南长沙410128

出　　处：《湖南农业科学》2025年第2期88-94,共7页Hunan Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：湖南省教育厅优秀青年项目(21B0205)。

摘　　要：分析2002—2022年湖南省粮食产量相关数据,探究湖南省粮食产量的影响因素并对粮食产量进行预测,以期为湖南省乃至全国的粮食生产提供一定的参考。通过灰色关联分析发现,与2002—2022年湖南省粮食产量密切相关的5个关键因素分别为有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量、农作物播种面积、年末实有耕地面积和农药使用量。通过向量自回归模型发现,2004—2022年湖南省粮食产量实际值和拟合值的走势基本一致,模型的数据模拟效果较好。基于此模型对2023—2025年湖南省的粮食产量进行预测,得出此期间的湖南省粮食产量可能保持相对稳定的状态。在此基础上,提出进一步合理使用化肥和农药、推广农业机械、完善农田水利设施、增强农业防灾减灾能力、提高粮食生产效率等建议。This study analyzed the relevant data of the grain yield in Hunan Province from 2002 to 2022,explored influencing factors of the grain yield in Hunan Province,and predicted the grain yield,so as to provide a certain reference for grain production in Hunan Province and even the whole country.Through the grey correlation analysis,it was found that the five key factors closely related to the grain yield in Hunan Province from 2002 to 2022 were the effective irrigation area,chemical fertilizer application amount,crop sown area,actual cultivated land area at the end of the year and pesticide use amount.Through the vector autoregression model,it was found that the trend of the actual value and the fitting value of the grain yield in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2022 were basically the same,and the data simulation effect of the model was good.Based on this model,the grain yield of Hunan Province from 2023 to 2025 was predicted,and it was concluded that the grain yield of Hunan Province may remain relatively stable during this period.Hence,suggestions were put forward:further rationally using chemical fertilizers and pesticides,popularizing agricultural machinery,improving farmland water conservancy facilities,enhancing agricultural disaster prevention and reduction capabilities,and improving the grain production efficiency.

关 键 词：粮食产量 影响因素 预测 灰色关联分析 向量自回归模型 湖南省 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]