基于层次分析法的森林火灾应急监测指标评估模型实证研究  

Study on Evaluation Model of Forest Fire Emergency Monitoring Index Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

作　　者：刘冀昆 王成虎 王明玉[3,4] 高桂云 LIU Ji-kun;WANG Cheng-hu;WANG Ming-yu;GAO Gui-yun(National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management,Beijing 100085,P.R.China;China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,P.R.China;Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Beijing 100091,P.R.China;Key Laboratory of Forest Protection of National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Beijing 100091,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院,北京100085 [2]中国地质大学(北京),北京100083 [3]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与自然保护研究所,北京100091 [4]国家林业和草原局森林保护学重点实验室,北京100091

出　　处：《森林防火》2025年第1期1-8,共8页JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE SCIENCE

基　　金：“十四五”国家重点研发计划重点专项“重大自然灾害防控与公共安全”(2021YFC3001901)。

摘　　要：森林火灾应急监测指标选取是实现林火扑救现场监测预警的重要前提,基于常见林火监测指标建立森林火灾应急监测指标评估模型,可为林火扑救应急监测预警基础性提供依据。本文通过分析和研究典型林火监测案例,分析林火应急监测指标特性,并以此为依据设置评估模型中的4个一级指标和9个二级指标,基于层次分析法建立了森林火灾应急监测指标评估模型。评估模型首先利用17个典型森林火灾监测案例中使用的49个指标进行合理性验证后,再对森林草原火灾扑救危险性等级评价模型中的指标进行评估。结果表明:气温、风速、可燃物密集度在评估模型中得分较高,可用于执行应急监测任务。应急监测指标模型的提出,对规范应急监测具有重要意义,为应急监测前期装备研发中指标选取提供了理论依据。The selection of indicators for forest fire emergency monitoring is a crucial prerequisite and foundation for achieving on-site monitoring and early warning of forest fire fighting.Developing an evaluation model for forest fire emergency monitoring indicators based on commonly used forest fire monitoring indicators can provide a basis for effective forest fire emergency monitoring and early warning systems.Through analysis and study of typical cases in forest fire monitoring,in this paper,the characteristics of indicators used in forest fire emergency monitoring were examined,establishing a hierarchical evaluation model with 4 primary indicators and 9 secondary indicators using the analytic hierarchy process.The evaluation model first validates the rationality of 49 indicators employed in 17 representative cases of forest fire monitoring,followed by evaluating these indicators within the framework of assessing the risk level associated with grassland fires.Results indicated that air temperature,wind speed,and fuel density score high within the evaluation model,making them suitable for emergency monitoring purposes.The proposed index model for emergency monitoring holds significant importance in standardizing such practices while providing a theoretical foundation to guide index selection during early-stage equipment research and development related to emergency monitorings.

关 键 词：森林火灾 应急监测 监测指标 层次分析法 评估模型 

分 类 号：S762[农业科学—森林保护学]