基于DEMATEL法的森林灭火实装演练安全风险评估实证研究  

Empirical Study on Safety Risk Assessment of Forest Fire Fighting Practice Based on DEMATEL Method

作　　者：赵梓程 吕则恺 常宁 赵建平 ZHAO Zi-Cheng;LV Ze-kai;CHANG Ning;ZHAO Jian-ping(China Fire and Rescue Institute,Beijing 102201,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]中国消防救援学院,北京102202

出　　处：《森林防火》2025年第1期21-24,共4页JOURNAL OF WILDLAND FIRE SCIENCE

基　　金：中国消防救援学院院级教改课题“基于PGSD能力分析模型的初级森林消防指挥员教学培训机制探究”(2024PYMS01)。

摘　　要：为促进森林消防队伍实装演练的安全发展,减少演练过程中安全隐患,降低事故发生可能,本研究基于“人-机-环境-管理”系统理论,构建森林灭火实装演练安全风险指标体系。首先,查阅筛选文献后,运用NVIVO软件进行质性文本分析,识别安全风险因素并建立了包含4个一级指标、11个二级指标、31个三级指标的风险指标体系。之后,利用决策试验和评价实验室法(DEMATEL)计算31个指标因素的影响度、被影响度和中心度计算权重,建立实装演练安全风险评估模型。结果指出,三级指标中指挥员统筹调度能力和应急资源调度为关键影响因素。In order to promote the safe development of forest fire fighting team's actual installation drill,reduce the safety hidden dangers during the drill and reduce the possibility of accidents,this study builds the safety risk index system of forest fire fighting actual installation drill based on the Man-Machine-Environment-Management system theory.First,after reviewing and screening literatures,NVIVO software was used to conduct qualitative text analysis on 21 literatures,identify security risk factors,and establish a risk index system including 4 first-level indicators,11 second-level indicators,and 31 third-level indicators.After that,DEMATEL was used to calculate the influence degree,the influence degree and the centrality degree of 31 index factors,so as to calculate the weight,and establish the safety risk assessment model of the practical exercise.The results showed that the commander's overall scheduling ability and emergency resource scheduling were the key influencing factors among the three indexes.The result of example was consistent with the real situation,which proved that the evaluation model was reliable.

关 键 词：森林灭火 实装演练 安全风险评估 DEMATEL 质性文本分析 

分 类 号：S762[农业科学—森林保护学]