自然灾害下流域水库的产汇流过程对发电碳排放量的影响  

Impact of Runoff Generation and Concentration Process in Watershed Reservoirs on Carbon Emissions of Power Generation Under Natural Disasters

作　　者：章坚民[1] 徐益珑 薛禹胜 王雨宽 薛峰 常康 ZHANG Jianmin;XU Yilong;XUE Yusheng;WANG Yukuan;XUE Feng;CHANG Kang(School of Automation,Hangzhou Dianzi University,Hangzhou 310018,China;State Grid Electric Power Research Institute(NARI Group Corporation),Nanjing 211106,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学自动化学院,浙江省杭州市310018 [2]国网电力科学研究院有限公司(南瑞集团有限公司),江苏省南京市211106

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2025年第6期1-13,共13页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：南瑞集团有限公司科技项目“信息-物理-社会元素的交互及协调技术”(GF-GFWD-210338)。

摘　　要：对于新能源占比逐渐提高的新型电力系统,自然灾害不仅会对电力设备及系统产生物理及功能损坏,也会通过一次能源过程及特征改变引发可再生能源发电量或储能下降,导致其减碳能力下降,碳排放量增加。以水库水电站为例,其一次能源为流域汇集的入库水流和具有势能的水库水体,受到流域气象、地质地貌、水文河流、人类活动、人类工程以及诱发的山火、暴雨、洪水、滑坡等多灾种的严重影响。首先,文中提出了基于流域产汇流机理的水库入流及水库防洪调度仿真计算模型,揭示了多灾害以及信息失误对该调度模型的各类影响机理。大量仿真计算揭示了流域气象-自然灾害-信息对水库水电站一次能源过程和发电、泄洪及电力系统发电碳排放量增加的影响;仿真计算结果显示,山火、暴雨、洪水、滑坡等4类自然灾害以及信息错误导致的水库水电站及电力系统发电碳排放量增加是显著的,验证了自然灾害通过改变一次能源过程对新型电力系统减碳功能的重大影响。For the new power system with an increasing proportion of renewable energy,natural disasters not only cause physical and functional damage to power equipment and systems,but also lead to reductions in renewable energy generation or energy storage through changes in primary energy processes and characteristics,resulting in a decrease in its carbon reduction capability and an increase in carbon emissions.Taking reservoir hydropower stations as examples,their primary energy sources are the inflow of water collected from the watershed and the reservoir water with potential energy,which are severely affected by various factors including watershed meteorology,geology and landforms,hydrology and rivers,human activities,human engineering,as well as induced wildfires,heavy rains,floods,landslides,and other multi-hazard events.First,the paper proposes a simulation calculation model for reservoir inflow and flood control scheduling based on the watershed runoff generation and concentration mechanism,revealing the various influence mechanisms of multi-hazards and information errors on this scheduling model.Extensive simulation calculations have unveiled the impacts of watershed meteorology-natural disasters-information on the primary energy processes of reservoir hydropower stations,as well as their effects on power generation,flood discharge,and the increase in carbon emissions from power system generation.The simulation calculation results show that the four types of natural disasters,namely wildfires,heavy rains,floods,and landslides,as well as information errors,significantly increase carbon emissions from reservoir hydropower stations and power system generation,verifying the significant impact of natural disasters on the carbon reduction function of the new power system by altering primary energy processes.

关 键 词：新型电力系统 自然灾害 一次能源 可再生能源 碳排放 产汇流 水电站 防洪调度 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]