我国苜蓿进口依赖性分析及中西苜蓿贸易展望  

Analysis of China's alfalfa import dependence and prospects for Sino Western alfalfa trade

作　　者：龙雪芬 孙雨萌 张浩 赵曦然 杨春[1] LONG Xuefen;SUN Yumeng;ZHANG Hao;ZHAO Xiran;YANG Chun(Institute of Agricutural Economics and Development,CAAS,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国饲料》2025年第5期138-148,共11页China Feed

基　　金：中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2024-01);国家牧草产业技术体系专项资金(CARS-34-22)。

摘　　要：近年来,我国苜蓿草进口规模屡创新高,饲草短期问题再次引起社会广泛关注。为保障我国食物安全,助力畜牧业转型升级,充分利用国内国外两个市场、两种资源,持续推动苜蓿产业发展,本研究从生产现状、产业政策、贸易情况三个方面系统梳理西班牙苜蓿产业发展现状,结合我国苜蓿进口的主要特征,构建进口依赖性风险指标分析我国对西班牙苜蓿进口依赖程度,在此基础上结合贸易剩余空间测算方法,分析西班牙苜蓿在我国苜蓿贸易市场的剩余空间,提出对策建议。研究发现:西班牙苜蓿草生产出现一定波动,对外出口规模稳步增长;我国自西班牙进口的苜蓿草数量呈波动增长,进口价格稳定且与美国苜蓿价差逐渐拉大;我国对西班牙苜蓿基本不存在进口依赖性风险,贸易剩余空间大。建议鼓励中西苜蓿贸易稳定发展,实现双方互利共赢;加强对西班牙苜蓿市场跟踪,主动掌握苜蓿定价权;建立苜蓿应急保障机制,构建多元化苜蓿进口来源格局。In recent years,the scale of China's alfalfa grass imports has repeatedly reached record highs,and the short-term problem of forage has once again aroused widespread social concern.In order to protect China's food security,help the transformation and upgrading of animal husbandry,make full use of the two domestic and foreign markets and two kinds of resources,and continue to promote the development of alfalfa industry.This study systematically combed the development status of Spanish alfalfa industry from three aspects:production status quo,industrial policy and trade situation,combines the main features of China's alfalfa imports,constructs import dependence risk indicators to analyze the degree of our country's dependence on Spain's alfalfa imports,and on this basis combines with the trade residual space measurement method to analyze the residual space of Spain's alfalfa in our country's alfalfa trade market and put forward countermeasure suggestions.The study found that:in recent years,Spain's alfalfa grass production has fluctuated to a certain extent,and the scale of foreign export has grown steadily;the quantity of alfalfa grass imported by China from Spain has fluctuated,and the price difference between imported alfalfa and that from the United States has gradually widened;China basically does not have the risk of import dependence on Spanish alfalfa,and there was a large space for trade surplus.Suggestion was put forward to encourage the stable development of alfalfa trade between China and Spain to realize mutual benefit and win-win situation,strengthen the tracking of alfalfa market in Spain and take the initiative to grasp the pricing right of alfalfa,establish an emergency guarantee mechanism for alfalfa and build a diversified pattern of alfalfa import sources.

关 键 词：西班牙 苜蓿 贸易特征 进口依赖性风险 剩余空间 

分 类 号：S816.5[农业科学—饲料科学]