中国单人户分布格局时空演变的三大特征及其影响因素  

Temporal-Spatial Pattern of One-Person Households in China:Three Characteristics and Influencing Factors

作　　者：李婷[1] 华杰 段成荣[1] Li Ting;Hua Jie;Duan Chengrong(Center for Population and Development Studies,School of Population and Health,Renmin University of China;School of Population and Health,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心、人口与健康学院 [2]中国人民大学人口与健康学院

出　　处：《人口研究》2025年第1期20-36,共17页Population Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“人口、家庭与可持续发展研究”(24&ZD155)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：探索单人户分布格局的时空演变对理解中国家庭转型有重要意义。基于2000年、2010年和2020年3次全国人口普查的1‰抽样数据,描绘近20年间中国单人户时空格局的变动,并考察其影响因素的时空变异性。研究发现,中国单人户时空格局具有三大特征:分布上,东部沿海经济带和青藏地区,以及各省省会或经济发展水平较高城市的单人户占比较高;变化趋势上,单人户占比的快速提升先发于东部和东北地区,随后蔓延至全国;年龄结构上,单人户占比的提升由原先的青年驱动逐渐向老年驱动演进。时空地理加权回归(GTWR)结果表明,现代化进程与人口转型共同塑造了这一时空格局,单人户的形成兼具主观意愿和被动选择。合理应对该家庭新形势,需要在促进家庭化迁移、关注青年婚配问题、健全社会养老保障体系等方面采取综合措施。Exploring the temporal-spatial evolution of one-person households(OPH)promotes the understanding of the transformation of families in China.Utilizing the 1‰sampling data from the population censuses,this study aims to describe the temporal-spatial patterns of OPH in China and the related influencing factors over the past 20 years.Results reveal three main characteristics:the eastern coastal economic belt,developed cities,and the Qinghai-Tibet region exhibit relatively higher OPH percentages;rapid growth initially occurred in the eastern and northeastern regions before spreading nationwide;overall growth is primarily driven by young adults and then by older adults.The GTWR model further indicates that the modernization process,along with China's demographic transformation,has shaped this pattern,influenced by both subjective willingness and passive choices.In light of this new trend,efforts should focus on promoting family-oriented internal migration,alleviating the youth marriage squeeze,and enhancing the pension system in a multi-dimensional manner.

关 键 词：单人户 家庭结构 独居 空间相关分析 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]