子女数量对父母期望退休年龄的影响:基于生育政策调整视角的分析  

The Effect of Number of Children on Expected Retirement Age of Parents:A Fertility Policy Adjustment Perspective

作　　者：徐英东 于潇[2] Xu Yingdong;Yu Xiao(Northeast Asian Studies College;Northeast Asian Research Center,Jilin University)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学东北亚学院 [2]吉林大学东北亚研究中心

出　　处：《人口研究》2025年第1期37-52,共16页Population Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化的理论与政策研究”(24&ZD157);国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国‘东北人口现象’研究”(21ARK003);吉林省社会科学基金重大项目“新时代吉林省人口高质量发展研究”(2024ZD14)的支持。

摘　　要：在渐进式延迟法定退休年龄政策正式落地的背景下,借助中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,基于广义罗伊模型,使用父母兄弟姐妹的子女数量作为排除性工具变量,实证检验子女数量影响父母期望退休年龄的生育政策异质性处理效应。研究发现,生育多子女存在父母期望退休年龄推迟效应,且随着生育政策对父母生育多子女的阻力变大,生育多子女的父母期望退休年龄推迟效应也会增强。生育政策调整模拟结果表明,全面二孩政策和三孩生育政策及配套支持措施相继实施后,多子女父母数量的增加会进一步增强生育多子女的父母期望退休年龄推迟效应。鉴于此,政府和用人单位可以考虑结合职工的子女情况,完善职工弹性提前或者延迟退休的详细实施办法。同时,各级政府应加快完善生育支持政策体系和激励机制。After the official implementation of the policy to gradually raise the statutory retirement age,we utilize data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)and employ the number of children of parents'siblings as an exclusive instrumental variable to empirically test the fertility policy heterogeneous treatment effect of the number of children on parents'expected retirement age based on the generalized Roy model.The findings reveal a delay effect of having multiple children on parents'expected retirement age.As the constraint imposed by the fertility policy on having multiple children increases,the effect becomes more pronounced.Simulation results regarding fertility policy adjustments suggest that,following the Universal Two-Child Policy and Three-Child Fertility Policy,the increase in the number of parents having multiple children further strengthens the delay effect of having multiple children on parents'expected retirement age.In light of this,governments and employers may consider taking into account employees'family situations regarding children,so as to refine the detailed implementation measures for employees'flexible early or delayed retirement.Meanwhile,governments at all levels should accelerate the improvement of the fertility support policy system and incentive mechanisms.

关 键 词：子女数量 期望退休年龄 生育政策调整 政策模拟 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] C913.1[政治法律—政治学] D669.6[政治法律—中外政治制度]