2000—2019年黄淮海流域植被覆盖度变化归因研究  

Study on the attribution of vegetation coverage change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Basin from 2000 to 2019

作　　者：郑荣伟[1] 张子元 高学睿[3] 王庆明[4] 黄志强 Zheng Rongwei;Zhang Ziyuan;Gao Xuerui;Wang Qingming;Huang Zhiqiang(Zhejiang Tongji Vocational College of Science and Technology,Hangzhou 311231,China;Hebei Province Soil and Water Conservation Work Station,Shijiazhuang 050011,China;Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Northwest A&F University,Yangling,Shanxi 712100;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Watershed Water Cycle Simulation and Regulation National Key Laboratory,Beijing 100038,China;Zhejiang Province Zhuji Vocational Education Center,Zhuji,Zhejiang 311800,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江同济科技职业学院,杭州311231 [2]河北省水土保持工作总站,石家庄050011 [3]西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100 [4]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [5]浙江省诸暨市职业教育中心,浙江诸暨311800

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2025年第3期214-221,共8页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：中国工程院院地合作项目(2023NMZA-01)。

摘　　要：[目的]科学评估黄淮海流域植被覆盖度变化中气候演变和人类活动的影响及定量贡献,为优化水土保持工作提供科学建议。[方法]基于黄淮海流域及其周围226个站点的气象数据以及SPOT-NDVI数据,利用像元二分法、线性斜率、Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Person相关等方法,探讨植被覆盖度演变对蒸散发、降水、气温等气候因子响应的时间滞后效应,在残差分析法中增加时滞效应影响,评估了植被覆盖度变化原因。[结果](1)2000—2019年黄淮海流域年均植被覆盖度增长显著,线性斜率为0.038/10 a。(2)黄淮海流域植被覆盖度对降水响应滞后以0月和1月为主,分别占比52%和48%;对气温响应主要为无滞后性和滞后1月,分别占比61%和38%;对潜在蒸散发响应主要滞后1月和2月,分别占比49%和34%。[结论]影响黄淮海流域植被变化的主要因素为人类活动,气候变化的平均贡献率为33%,人类活动的平均贡献率为67%;其中约47%的区域人类活动影响贡献率超过80%,主要位于黄河流域西北部和东南部、海河流域南部和淮河流域。[Objective]This study aims to scientifically assess the impact of climate change and human activities on vegetation coverage changes in the Huang-Huai-Hai Basin,and to quantify their respective contributions,providing scientific recommendations for the optimization of soil and water conservation.[Method]Based on meteorological data from 226 stations across the Huang-Huai-Hai Basin and surrounding areas,as well as SPOTNDVI data,the study employed methods such as the pixel dichotomy,linear slope,Mann-Kendall trend test and Pearson correlation to examine the time-lag effects of vegetation coverage changes in response to climate factors,including evapotranspiration,precipitation,and temperature.Time-lag effects were incorporated into residual analysis to evaluate the causes of vegetation coverage changes.[Result](1)From 2000 to 2019,the annual mean vegetation coverage in the Huang-Huai-Hai Basin showed significant growth,with a linear slope of 0.038 per decade.(2)Vegetation coverage in the Huang-Huai-Hai Basin responded to precipitation with a time-lag,mainly at 0-and 1-month lags,accounting for 52%and 48%respectively.The response to temperature was predominantly immediate(0-month lag)and at a 1-month lag,with proportions of 61%and 38%respectively.The response to potential evapotranspiration mainly exhibited 1-and 2-month lags,accounting for 49%and 34%,respectively.[Conclusion]The primary factor influencing vegetation change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Basin is human activities,with an average contribution of 67%.Climate change contributes an average of 33%.Approximately 47%of the region experiences human activity impacts exceeding 80%,with the highest contributions located in the northwest and southeast of the Yellow River Basin,the southern part of the Haihe River Basin,and the Huaihe River Basin.

关 键 词：植被覆盖度 时滞效应 气候变化 人类活动 黄淮海流域 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]