西北地区水—能源—粮食系统耦合协调发展时空动态及预测分析  

Research and forecast analysis on the coupling coordinated development of Water-Energy-Food system in Northwest China

作　　者：郝仪佳 夏咏[1] 张扬 李先东 Hao Yijia;Xia Yong;Zhang Yang;Li Xiandong(College of Economics&Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China;School of Engineering Management&Real Estate(School of Agriculture and Rural Development),Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou 450016,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济管理学院,乌鲁木齐830052 [2]河南财经政法大学工程管理与房地产学院(农业农村发展学院),郑州450016

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2025年第3期251-259,269,共10页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71973039);教育部人文社科资助项目(22YJC790063);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(22A630001);河南省社科规划项目(2020BJJ005);自治区普通高校人文社科重点研究基地项目(XJEDU2023J004)。

摘　　要：[目的]对西北地区水—能源—粮食系统(WEF系统)耦合协调发展程度进行研究,以期为促进生态与经济可持续高质量发展转型提供一定参考价值。[方法]以西北五省2002—2022年共21年的33个指标数据为基础,运用熵值法等构建WEF系统指标评价体系,在此基础上构建耦合协调度模型,并利用ArcGIS等软件分析西北五省的WEF系统耦合协调度时空演变特征,最后通过灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,对未来8年的耦合协调度进行预测。[结果]2002—2022年西北五省地区WEF系统的综合发展指数总体上呈现上升趋势,其中粮食子系统的综合发展状况相对最好。耦合度呈现逐渐聚集趋势,耦合协调度呈现稳步上涨趋势。[结论]整体上西北五省的WEF系统耦合发展程度较低,陕西、新疆处于勉强耦合阶段,甘肃、青海处于濒临失调阶段,宁夏处于轻度失调阶段,制约耦合协调发展的主要因素是水资源滞后型及能源滞后型。预计在2023—2030年西北五省将大致延续之前的耦合发展特征。[Objective]This study investigates the degree of coupled and coordinated development of the Water-Energy-Food System(WEF system)in Northwest China,aiming to provide a reference for promoting the transformation toward sustainable and high-quality ecological and economic development.[Methods]Based on the data from 33 indicators covering 21 years(2002-2022)for the five provinces in Northwest China,the entropy value method and other methods were utilized to construct an evaluation system for WEF system indicators.On this basis,a coupling coordination degree model was constructed,and the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the WEF system′s coupling coordination degree in the five provinces were analyzed using ArcGIS and other software.Finally,the coupling coordination degree in the next 8 years was predicted by the gray prediction GM(1,1)model.[Results]The comprehensive development index of WEF system in the five provinces in Northwest China showed a general upward trend from 2002 to 2022,with the food subsystem performing relatively the best.The coupling degree showed a gradual converging trend,and the coupling coordination degree showed a steady upward trend.[Conclusion]Overall,the degree of coupling development of WEF system in the five provinces is relatively low.Shaanxi and Xinjiang are in a stage of marginal coupling.Gansu and Qinghai are on the verge of imbalance,and Ningxia is in the stage of mild imbalance.The main factors restricting the coupling coordinated development are lagging development of water resources and energy.It is expected that in 2023-2030,the five provinces in Northwest China will continue the previous coupling development trend.

关 键 词：西北地区 水—能源—粮食 耦合度 耦合协调度 灰色预测 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济] F426.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV213.4