鄱阳湖平原耕地利用绿色转型时空格局及驱动因素  

Spatial-temporal pattern and driving factors of green transformation of cultivated land use in Poyang Lake Plain

作　　者：胡海洋 余敦[1] 魏鹏 唐诗宇 Hu Haiyang;Yu Dun;Wei Peng;Tang Shiyu(College of Land Resources and Environment,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045,China)

机构地区：[1]江西农业大学国土资源与环境学院,南昌330045

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2025年第3期270-281,共12页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：江西省社会科学基金项目(20GL08);江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ210453)。

摘　　要：[目的]揭示鄱阳湖平原耕地利用绿色转型的时空格局及驱动机制,为实现区域耕地绿色可持续利用提供理论参考。[方法]以鄱阳湖平原29个县域为例,采用CRITIC-熵值法为耕地利用绿色转型评价指标综合赋权,利用Spearman秩相关系数、双变量局部空间自相关分析揭示其权衡协同特征,基于空间计量回归模型探究耕地利用绿色转型的驱动机制。[结果](1)研究期内,耕地利用空间、功能、模式转型指数均得到不同幅度增长,综合转型指数的增幅达到14.33%,在空间上呈现出“中间高、四周低”的集聚特征;(2)空间转型与功能转型呈现出H-H协同和L-L协同的局面,协同关系略微减弱,空间转型与模式转型表现为H-L权衡和L-H权衡的局面,权衡关系有所减弱,功能转型与模式转型呈现出H-L权衡和L-H权衡的特点,权衡关系有所增强;(3)地均农业产值对耕地利用绿色转型呈现出显著的正向影响,水网密度、常住人口城镇化率、城乡居民可支配收入比、耕地距建设用地距离等因素均表现出显著的负向影响。[结论]鄱阳湖平原耕地利用绿色转型呈现良好发展趋势,但转型矛盾仍较突出,未来仍需从加强耕地保护管理、推广农业绿色生产等角度持续发力。[Objective]To reveal the spatial-temporal pattern and driving mechanism of the green transformation of cultivated land use in the Poyang Lake Plain,and to provide a theoretical reference for achieving green and sustainable use of cultivated land.[Methods]Taking 29 counties in the Poyang Lake Plain as examples,the CRITIC-entropy method was used to comprehensively assign weights to evaluation indicators of the green transformation of cultivated land use.The Spearman rank correlation coefficient and bivariate local spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to reveal their trade-off and synergy characteristics.A spatial econometric regression model was applied to explore the driving mechanism of the green transformation of cultivated land use.[Results](1)During the study period,the spatial,functional and mode transformation indices of cultivated land use showed varying degrees of growth,with the comprehensive transformation index increasing by 14.33%.Spatially,this exhibited a‘high in the middle and low in the periphery’clustering pattern.(2)Spatial transformation and functional transformation showed H-H and L-L synergies,and the synergies were slightly weakened.Spatial transformation and mode transformation exhibited H-L and L-H trade-offs,with reduced tradeoff relationships.Functional transformation and mode transformation exhibited H-L and L-H trade-offs,with enhanced trade-off relationships.(3)Agricultural output value per unit of land had a significant positive impact on the green transformation of cultivated land use,while factors such as water network density,urbanization rate of permanent residents,urban-rural residents'disposable income,and the distance between cultivated land and construction land showed significant negative impacts.[Conclusion]The green transformation of cultivated land use in the Poyang Lake Plain shows a positive development trend.However,contradictions in the transformation remain prominent.Future efforts should focus on enhancing cultivated land protection and management and promo

关 键 词：耕地利用绿色转型 时空格局 权衡与协同 空间计量回归 鄱阳湖平原 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]