基于MOP-PLUS模型的兰西城市群“三生”空间冲突测度及多情景模拟  

Measurement of spatial conflicts and multi-scenario simulation of‘production-living-ecological’spaces in the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration based on the MOP-PLUS model

作　　者：王晓兰 谢保鹏 裴婷婷 陈英 申杨 Wang Xiaolan;Xie Baopeng;Pei Tingting;Chen Ying;Shen Yang(School of Management,Gansu Agriculture University,Lanzhou 730070,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学管理学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2025年第3期363-372,共10页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：博士项目启动基金(GAU-KYYQD-2022-44);甘肃农业大学伏羲青年英才培育计划项目(Gaufx-03Y08);国家自然科学基金(地区科学基金)(42361017)。

摘　　要：[目的]提出缓解“三生”空间冲突的发展策略,为区域国土空间格局优化提供重要指引。[方法]耦合MOPPLUS模型模拟兰西城市群“三生”空间格局,并构建空间冲突指数模型测算空间冲突水平。[结果](1)2000—2020年兰西城市群以生态空间为主,生产空间次之,生活空间最少。生活空间显著扩张,生产与生态空间缩减;空间冲突以中等以上为主,总体呈增强趋势,冲突单元有布局的延续性和明显的地域集中性。(2)不同情景下“三生”空间模拟结果各异。自然发展情景下生活空间增加最多,生产发展情景下生产空间增加最多,生态建设和协同发展情景下生态空间减少趋势得到抑制。(3)不同情景下“三生”空间冲突平均水平由高到低依次为自然发展、生产发展、协同发展、生态建设情景。[结论]协同发展情景下的“三生”空间结构能够兼顾生态效益和经济效益的双重目标,且保持较低的冲突水平,有助于区域空间可持续发展。[Objective]This study proposes development strategies to alleviate conflicts in‘production-livingecological’(PLE)spaces,providing important guidance for optimizing regional spatial patterns.[Methods]The MOP-PLUS model was applied to simulate the PLE spatial patterns of the Lanzhou-Xining Urban Agglomeration(LXUA).Furthermore,a spatial conflict index model was developed to assess the level of spatial conflicts.[Results](1)From 2000 to 2020,the LXUA was dominated by ecological space,followed by production space,with living space being the smallest.Living space expanded significantly,while production and ecological spaces decreased.Spatial conflicts were predominantly moderate or higher,showing an overall increasing trend.Conflicting units exhibited continuity in their layout and distinct geographical clustering.(2)The simulated results of PLE spaces varied under different scenarios.Under the natural development scenario,living space increased the most.Under the production development scenario,production space increased the most.Under the ecological construction and collaborative development scenarios,the decreasing trend of ecological space was restrained.(3)The average level of PLE spatial conflicts across different scenarios was ranked from high to low as follows:natural development,production development,coordinated development,and ecological construction scenarios.[Conclusion]Under the coordinated development scenario,the structure of PLE spaces balances ecological and economic benefits while maintaining a relatively low level of spatial conflict,thereby contributing to the sustainable development of regional spaces.

关 键 词：“三生”空间 空间冲突 MOP模型 PLUS模型 兰西城市群 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]