轨道交通工程合同履约过程中成本风险评价与管控措施研究  

Research on Cost Risk Assessment and Control Measures in the Performance Process of Rail Transit Engineering Contracts

作　　者：赵金波 黄长富 钱栋栋 王鹏 ZHAO Jin-bo;HUANG Chang-fu;QIAN Dong-dong;WANG Peng(CRRC Intelligent Traffic Engineering Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100078,China;Jiangsu CRRC Urban Development Co.,Ltd.,Wuxi 214104,China)

机构地区：[1]中车智能交通工程技术有限公司,北京100078 [2]江苏中车城市发展有限公司,无锡214104

出　　处：《价值工程》2025年第8期79-81,共3页Value Engineering

摘　　要：为量化轨道交通工程成本风险,文章首先通过查阅相关文献资料,针对成本风险影响因素进行分析研究,建立了包含8个指标的成本风险评价指标体系;然后采用专家打分法和层次分析法计算各评价指标的权重,得到成本风险指标权重表;最后应用专家打分法、风险矩阵法和模糊综合评价法,综合考虑风险发生的概率和影响程度,构建了完整的成本风险评价模型,并结合实际工程展开分析,验证了模型的有效性,同时提出成本风险的管控措施,对类似项目成本风险管控具有一定的指导意义。In order to quantify the cost risk of urban rail transit engineering,this paper first conducts an analysis of the influencing factors of cost risk through literature review,and establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system for cost risk,which includes 8 indicators.Then,the paper uses expert scoring method and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to calculate the weight of each evaluation index,and obtains the cost risk index weight table.Finally,the paper uses expert scoring method,risk matrix method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to build a complete cost risk evaluation model,taking into account the probability and degree of risk occurrence.The model is applied to a real project to verify its effectiveness,and measures are proposed to manage cost risk,which can provide guidance for similar projects.

关 键 词：轨道交通工程 成本风险评价模型 风险矩阵法 模糊综合评价法 成本管控 

分 类 号：U239.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]