基于健康工作预期寿命的中国50岁居民最优延迟退休年龄的测算  

Optimal delayed retirement age estimation for Chinese residents aged 50 based on healthy working life expectancy

作　　者：孙楠 周乾宇 赵明扬 刘梦婷 完颜通 王楠 孙长青 SUN Nan;ZHOU Qianyu;ZHAO Mingyang;LIU Mengting;WANYAN Tong;WANG Nan;SUN Changqing(Department of Social Medicine and Health Management,College of Public Health,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001;Department of Community Nursing,School of Nursing and Health,Zhengzhou Uni versity,Zhengzhou 450001)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学公共卫生学院社会医学与卫生事业管理学教研室,郑州450001 [2]郑州大学护理与健康学院社区护理教研室,郑州450001

出　　处：《郑州大学学报(医学版)》2025年第2期203-207,共5页Journal of Zhengzhou University(Medical Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(20BRK041);河南省科技攻关项目(242102311135);中原英才计划(育才系列)项目(33220063)。

摘　　要：目的:基于健康工作预期寿命(HWLE)测算我国50岁居民最优延迟退休年龄。方法:使用2015、2018和2020年中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,计算衰弱指数,<0.25为健康,≥0.25为不健康。工作定义为过去1 a从事任何有薪资或无薪资的工作。根据健康和工作状态将健康工作状态分为健康工作、健康不工作、不健康工作、不健康不工作、死亡。利用连续多状态马尔可夫模型计算50岁居民不同健康工作状态下的HWLE,据此测算最优延迟退休年龄。随后通过最佳截断值法与最小意义变化值法验证测算结果的可靠性。结果:不同健康工作状态人群的HWLE不同,据此测算的健康工作状态下50岁男性居民最优退休年龄为67.63岁,女性为60.11岁。采用最佳截断值法估计基于健康的最大工作年龄,男性为70岁、女性为66岁;采用最小意义变化值法估计男性和女性均70岁;说明测算结果可靠。结论:本研究测算的我国50岁居民最优延迟退休年龄较现行延迟退休年龄基准提升,提示现行延迟退休政策仍有优化空间。Aim:To estimate the optimal delayed retirement age for Chinese residents aged 50 based on healthy working life expectancy(HWLE).Methods:Using the data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)of 2015,2018 and 2020,the frailty index was calculated,and frailty index<0.25 indicated health,≥0.25 indicated poor health.Employment was defined as engaging in any paid or unpaid work in the past one year.The health and work status were classified into 5 categories:healthy working,healthy not working,unhealthy working,unhealthy not working,and death.A continuous multi-state Markov model was applied to calculate HWLE for 50-year-old residents in different health and work states,from which,the optimal delayed retirement age was estimated.The reliability of the estimates was further tested using the best cutoff value method and the minimal meaningful change method.Results:HWLE varied across different health and work states.Based on these results,the optimal retirement age for healthy working 50-year-old male residents was estimated to be 67.63 years,and for females,it was 60.11 years.The maximum working age based on health was 70 years for men and 66 years for women estimated using the best cutoff value method,and 70 years for both males and females using the minimal meaningful change method,indicating the reliability of the estimates.Conclusion:The optimal delayed retirement age for Chinese residents aged 50 calculated in this study is higher than the current benchmark,indicating that there is still room to optimize the current delayed retirement policy.

关 键 词：健康工作预期寿命 人口老龄化 延迟退休年龄 多状态马尔可夫模型 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]