1990-2019年中国儿童青少年哮喘发病率与死亡率变化趋势分析  

Trend of asthma incidence and mortality in Chinese children and adolescents from 1990 to 2019

作　　者：陈海英 樊慧[1] 杨洋[2] 杜文哲 郝长付[2] CHEN Haiying;FAN Hui;YANG Yang;DU Wenzhe;HAO Changfu(Department of Ultrasound,the Third Affiliated Hospital,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450052;Department of Child and Adolescent Health,College of Public Health,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学第三附属医院超声科,郑州450052 [2]郑州大学公共卫生学院儿童少年卫生学教研室,郑州450001

出　　处：《郑州大学学报(医学版)》2025年第2期216-220,共5页Journal of Zhengzhou University(Medical Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(82173491)。

摘　　要：目的:分析1990-2019年中国0~<25岁儿童青少年哮喘发病率和死亡率变化趋势。方法:从全球疾病负担数据库获得1990-2019年中国儿童青少年(0~<25岁)发病率及死亡率数据,采用Joinpoint回归模型和年龄-时期-队列模型进行分析。结果:1990-2019年中国儿童青少年各年龄组(<5、5~<10、10~<15、15~<20和20~<25岁组)哮喘发病率年平均变化百分比(AAPC)分别为0.314%、-0.063%、-0.075%、-0.079%和-0.160%,死亡率的AAPC分别为-10.749%、-7.364%、-6.571%、-5.318%和-8.275%。年龄-时期-队列模型结果显示,发病率及死亡率随着年龄的增加而降低;时期发病率先降低后升高(2007年最低),呈现U形分布,而死亡率则随着时期的增加而降低(自1990年的0.182/10万下降至2019年的0.021/10万);随着队列的推移发病率先降低后升高(自1.274/10万降低至0.940/10万再升至1.222/10万),死亡率则一直降低(自3.471/10万降低至0.374/10万)。结论:1990-2019年,中国儿童青少年哮喘发病率和死亡率总体下降,<10岁儿童为高风险人群。Aim:To analyze the trend of asthma incidence and mortality among children and adolescents aged 0-<25 in China from 1990 to 2019.Methods:Data on asthma incidence and mortality among Chinese children and adolescents(aged 0-<25)from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Database.Joinpoint regression analysis and age-period-cohort model were used to for the analysis.Results:From 1990 to 2019,the average annual percent change(AAPC)in asthma incidence in different age groups(<5,5-<10,10-<15,15-<20,20-<25 age groups)was 0.314%,-0.063%,-0.075%,-0.079%,and-0.160%,respectively.The AAPC for asthma mortality was-10.749%,-7.364%,-6.571%,-5.318%,and-8.275%,respectively.The age-period-cohort model revealed that asthma incidence and mortality decreased with increasing age.The period rate for incidence first declined and then increased,exhibiting a U-shaped trend(the lowest was in 2007),while the period rate for mortality consistently decreased(from 0.182 per 100000 in 1990 to 0.021 per 100000 in 2019).The cohort rate for incidence initially decreased and then increased(from 1.274 per 100000 to 0.940 per 100000 and then to 1.222 per 100000),whereas the cohort rate for mortality steadily declined(from 3.471 per 100000 to 0.374 per 100000).Conclusion:From 1990 to 2019,asthma incidence and mortality among children and adolescents in China showed an overall decline.Children under 10 years old are high risk population.

关 键 词：哮喘 年龄-时期-队列模型 Joinpoint回归模型 中国 儿童青少年 

分 类 号：R179[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健]