工业智能化与中国企业技术追赶:基于后发优势的机制分析与效应检验  

Industrial Intelligence and Technological Catch-up of Chinese Firms:Mechanism Analysis and Effect Testing of Later-mover Advantage

作　　者：卢霄 蒋殿春[1] LU Xiao;JIANG Dian-chun(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《现代财经(天津财经大学学报)》2025年第1期3-22,共20页Modern Finance and Economics:Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD790039);教育部哲学社会科学实验室专项资金项目(H0122706)。

摘　　要：在新一轮科技革命和产业变革加速演进的背景下,人工智能成为各国构建技术竞争优势的主要抓手,为后发企业实现技术追赶提供了重要机遇。文章通过匹配2011—2019年中国制造业上市公司数据与IFR工业机器人数据,系统考察了工业智能化对企业技术追赶的影响效应及其内在作用机制。研究发现:工业智能化能够有效推动中国制造业企业的技术追赶,该结论通过了一系列稳健性检验;人力资本结构优化效应、创新激励效应和供应链稳定效应是工业智能化影响企业技术追赶的中间渠道。异质性分析表明,工业智能化对企业技术追赶的促进作用在低数字化水平企业、资本密集型企业和高行业集中度企业中更加显著。进一步的动态效应检验发现,工业智能化不仅能够在短期内使中国制造业企业凭借后发优势缩短与世界前沿的技术距离,还能够在长期内持续促进中国制造业企业的技术追赶,同时分位数回归表明工业智能化对中等技术追赶水平企业的影响最为显著。文章研究结论不仅为后发企业利用先进技术赶超世界领先企业提供新的理论和证据,还为推动工业智能化转型及实现科技自立自强提供针对性的政策建议。Against the backdrop of the accelerated evolution of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation,artificial intelligence has become a major tool for countries to build technological competitive advantages,providing important opportunities for latecomer firms to achieve technological catch-up.By matching the data of Chinese listed manufacturing firms from 201l to 2019 with the data of IFR industrial robots,this study systematically examines the impact of industrial intelligence on Chinese manufacturing firms'technological catch-up and its internal mechanism.The study finds that industrial intelligence can significantly promote Chinese manufacturing firms'technological catch-up,and this conclusion has passed a series of robustness tests.Moreover,the optimization effect of human capital structure,the innovation incentive effect,and the supply chain stability effect are the intermediate channels through which industrial intelligence affects firms'technological catch-up.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the promotion effect of industrial intelligence on firm's technology catch-up is more significant in firms with low-digitalization level,capital-intensive firms and firms with high industry concentration.Further dynamic effect test shows that industrial intelligence not only shortens the technological distance between Chinese manufacturing firms and the world's frontier depending on the latermover advantage in the short term,but also promotes the technological catch-up of Chinese manufacturing firms in the long run.Meanwhile,quantile regression indicates that industrial intelligence has the most significant impact on firms at the medium level of technological catch-up.The conclusions of this study not only provide new theories and evidence for latecomer firms to use advanced technology to catch up with the world's leading firms,but also provide targeted policy suggestions for promoting the transformation of industrial intelligence and achieving scientific and technological self-reliance.

关 键 词：工业智能化 技术追赶 供应链稳定 后发优势 动态效应 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济] F415.2