新质生产力对中国制造业国际竞争力影响研究——基于人力资本高级化有调节的中介效应模型检验  

Research on the impact of new quality productivity on the international competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry--A moderated mediation effect model test based on human capital upgrading

作　　者：刘庆林[1] 郭天资 张沛键 Liu Qinglin;Guo Tianzi;Zhang Peijian

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《东岳论丛》2025年第2期72-81,191,192,共12页DongYue Tribune

摘　　要：在构筑国际竞争新优势和新一轮科技革命的大背景下,新质生产力的发展对于提升制造业国际竞争力具有重要意义。现有研究主要关注新质生产力测算与影响因素,鲜有文献考虑人力资本高级化等因素的调节作用。本文基于2011—2021年中国31省份的面板数据,测算了新质生产力水平,实证分析了新质生产力对制造业国际竞争力的影响,考察了出口技术复杂度的中介效应以及人力资本高级化的调节效应。研究结果表明,新质生产力显著提升了中国制造业国际竞争力。同时,新质生产力通过提高出口技术复杂度,间接影响了制造业的国际竞争力。进一步分析发现,人力资本高级化在这一过程中发挥了正向调节作用,不仅增强了新质生产力的直接效应,还在出口技术复杂度影响制造业国际竞争力的间接效应中起到了积极的调节作用。区域分析结果表明,新质生产力对东部地区制造业国际竞争力有显著正向影响,而在中部和西部地区,这一影响相对较弱。Under the background of building new advantages in international competition and a new round of scientific and technological revolution,the development of new quality productivity is of great significance for enhancing the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry.Existing studies mainly focus on the measurement and influencing factors of new quality productivity,while few literature consider the moderating effect of factors such as the upgrading of human capital.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021,this paper estimates the level of new quality productivity,empirically analyzes the impact of new quality productivity on the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry,and examines the mediating effect of export technological complexity and the moderating effect of human capital upgrading.The results show that the new quality productivity has significantly improved the international competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry.At the same time,the new quality productivity indirectly affects the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry by increasing the technical complexity of export.Further analysis shows that the upgrading of human capital plays a positive moderating role in this process,which not only enhances the direct effect of new quality productivity,but also plays a positive moderating role in the indirect effect of export technological complexity on the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry.The regional analysis results indicate that the new quality productivity has a significant positive impact on the international competitiveness of the manufacturing industry in the eastern region,while this impact is relatively weak in the central and western regions.

关 键 词：新质生产力 制造业国际竞争力 人力资本高级化 国际贸易 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]