2024年中国天然气发展述评及2025年展望  

Review of China's natural gas development in 2024 and outlook for 2025

作　　者：高芸[1] 王蓓[1] 胡迤丹 于智博[1] GAO Yun;WANG Bei;HU Yidan;YU Zhibo(Research Institute of Natural Gas Economy, PetroChina Southwest Oil & Gasfield Company;CNPC Chuanqing Drilling Engineering Company Limited)

机构地区：[1]中国石油西南油气田公司天然气经济研究所 [2]中国石油集团川庆钻探工程有限公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2025年第2期55-67,共13页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2024年,中国天然气勘探和产供储销各环节继续保持稳中有进态势,部分指标居历史最好水平,主要表现在:1)天然气勘探再获新突破,新增探明地质储量继续处于增长高峰;2)天然气年产量增长140亿立方米,新增两个百亿立方米大气田;3)天然气进口增量居历年前列,管道气进口增量占比近10年来首次超越液化天然气;4)天然气需求增速加快,市场供应宽松;5)天然气基础设施建设加速推进,“四大战略通道+五纵五横”的天然气管网骨干架构基本成型;6)《中华人民共和国能源法》颁布,《天然气利用管理办法》出台;7)天然气市场化发展稳步向前,天然气现货交易量大幅增长12%。2025年,中国天然气勘探开发将遵循“稳中求进、以进促稳”方针,预计天然气探明地质储量和产量分别增加1万亿立方米和100亿立方米以上;天然气进口量稳定增长,进口价格中枢下移;天然气市场需求突破4500亿立方米,工业用气需求加大,市场供需宽平衡。In 2024,China's natural gas exploration and production,supply,storage,and marketing of various links continued to maintain a stable and progressive trend with some indicators reaching their best levels in history.They mainly manifested in natural gas exploration obtains new breakthroughs and the newly proved geological reserves continue on peaking growth,natural gas production increased by 14 billion cubic meters per annum and two new gas fields of 10-billion cubic meters level have been discovered,natural gas imports increased to reach the forefront over the years and the pipeline gas import.Incremental share of pipeline gas imports exceeded liquefied natural gas(LNG) for the first time in the past decade,natural gas demand growth accelerated and the market supply is sufficient,natural gas infrastructure construction accelerated and “four strategic corridors + five vertical and five horizontal” of the natural gas pipeline network backbone structure was basically shaped,the Energy Law of the People's Republic of China enacted and the Management Measures for Natural Gas Utilization promulgated,and natural gas market development moves forward steadily and natural gas spot trading volume increased significantly by 12%.In 2025,China's natural gas exploration and development will follow the policy of “seeking advances amidst stability,promoting stability through advances”,it is expected that natural gas proved geological reserves and production will increase by more than 1 trillion cubic meters and 10 billion cubic meters,respectively,the volume of natural gas imports will grow steadily with the import price pivot moving downward,natural gas market demand will exceed 450 billion cubic meters,the demand for industrial gas will increase,and the market supply and demand will be broadly balanced.

关 键 词：中国 天然气 勘探开发 储量 产量 消费量 进口量 基础设施 展望 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F426.2