2024年全球天然气市场回顾及2025年展望  

Review of global natural gas market in 2024 and outlook for 2025

作　　者：夏潇远 XIA Xiaoyuan(China International United Petroleum & Chemicals Co., Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]中国国际石油化工联合有限责任公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2025年第2期68-75,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2024年全球天然气供需紧张形势大幅改善,天然气价格波动区间较2023年有所下移。2024年全球天然气需求量为4.2万亿立方米,同比增长1070亿立方米;供应量为4.19万亿立方米,同比增长680亿立方米。2024年全球LNG需求量约为4.09亿吨,同比增长570万吨,其中亚太LNG进口量增长,欧洲进口量下降;全球LNG新建产能有限,超过5000万吨/年的产能推迟上线。欧盟继续执行自愿削减天然气需求的政策,叠加工业活动疲软因素影响,天然气需求整体承压;美国天然气供应和需求稳中有增;中国天然气需求继续增长,天然气表观消费量4219亿立方米,同比增长323亿立方米。预计2025年中国天然气需求量有望延续增势,同比增长250亿立方米,达4470亿立方米。天然气仍将在中国能源转型进程中扮演重要角色,天然气发电投资规模进一步扩张。整体来看,2025年全球天然气市场维持紧平衡,天然气价格或高位震荡,波动区间有所上移,对市场变化继续维持高度敏感。Global gas supply & demand tension was alleviated and improved significantly in 2024,with the gas price volatility range shifting down from 2023.Global gas demand in 2024 was 4.2 trillion cubic meters,with an increase of 107 billion cubic meters year-on-year,while supply was 4.19 trillion cubic meters,a year-on-year increase of 68 billion cubic meters Global LNG demand in 2024 was about 409 million tons,an increase of 5.7 million tons year-on-year,with Asia-Pacific LNG imports increasing and European imports declining.Global new LNG capacity was limited,with more than 50 million tons/year delayed the launch.The EU continued to implement voluntary gas demand reduction policies,overlaid with weak industrial activity,the overall natural gas demand was under pressure,and U.S.natural gas supply and demand grew steadily.China's natural gas demand continued to increase,with apparent natural gas consumption of 421.9 billion cubic meters,an increase of 32.3 billion cubic meters year-on-year.China's natural gas demand is expected to continue growing in 2025,rising by 25 billion cubic meters year-on-year to about 447 billion cubic meters.Natural gas will continue to play an important role in China's energy transition,with further expansion of investment in natural gas-fired power generation.Overall,the global natural gas market will maintain a tight balance in 2025,natural gas prices may oscillate at a high level,with the fluctuation range shifting upwards,and continue to be highly sensitive to market changes.

关 键 词：天然气市场 消费量 供应量 LNG 价格 

分 类 号：F407.22[经济管理—产业经济] F416.22