城市洪涝灾害韧性评价及预测-以河北省为例  

Resilience Evaluation and Prediction of Urban Flood Waterlogging Damage——Taking Hebei Province as an Example

作　　者：邹佳锦 杨雅婷 王鹏飞[2,3] 闫怡然[2] 贾丰泽 ZOU Jiajin;YANG Yating;WANG Pengfei;YAN Yiran;JIA Fengze(College of Architectural Engineering and Mechanics,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao Hebei,066004;College of Urban Construction,Hebei Normal University of Science&Technology,Qinhuangdao Hebei,066004;Key Laboratory of Green Construction and Intelligent Operation and Maintenance of Civil Engineering in Hebei Province,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao Hebei,066004,China)

机构地区：[1]燕山大学建筑工程与力学学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [2]河北科技师范学院城市建设学院,河北秦皇岛066004 [3]燕山大学河北省土木工程绿色建造与智能运维重点实验室,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《河北科技师范学院学报》2024年第4期52-59,共8页Journal of Hebei Normal University of Science & Technology

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金一般项目(项目编号:HB24ZT034)。

摘　　要：为应对城市频发的洪涝灾害威胁,确保高质量发展,强化城市洪涝灾害韧性,从经济、生态、社会、工程等4个维度构建城市洪涝灾害韧性评价体系,该评价体系包含16个具体指标。基于1983―2022年社会、经济、气象、基础设施建设等数据,利用熵权法、Logistic拟合回归分析评价河北省城市洪涝灾害韧性水平及动态演化特征,识别其关键影响因素,并构建韧性演化曲线方程,预测其演化趋势。结果表明:1983―2022年河北省城市洪涝灾害韧性水平整体呈上升趋势;生态韧性水平提升最为明显;韧性系统演化已经历起步期、成长期、成熟期,目前正处于饱和期,预测将于2070年前后达到理论极值。根据韧性发展现状与极值之间的差距,系统提出了韧性优化针对性措施。A resilience evaluation system with 16 specific indicators for urban flood waterlogging damage was constructed from dimensions of economy,ecology,society,and engineering to address the threats of urban flood waterlogging damage,ensure high-quality development,and improve urban flood resilience.Based on data from 1982 to 2022 covering society,economy,meteorology and infrastructure,the resilience level and dynamic evolution characteristics of urban flood resilience in Hebei province were studied with the entropy weight method and Logistic regression analysis to identify the influencing factors,develop the resilience evolution curve equation,and predict future trends.The results showed that the overall resilience level of urban flood resilience in Hebei province increased from 1982 to 2022,and ecological resilience was the most significant.The resilience system was currently in the saturation stage after undergoing the initiation,the growth,and the maturity stage,and the theoretical maximum will be reached by 2070.Resilience optimization was proposed according to the gap between the current resilience level and the theoretical maximum.

关 键 词：洪涝灾害 韧性评价 熵权法 演化模型 LOGISTIC方程 河北省 

分 类 号：TU528[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]