气候变化下沙棘在新疆潜在分布格局的变化  

Potential distribution pattern of Hippophae rhamnoides in Xinjiang under climate change predicted using the MaxEnt model

作　　者：罗磊[1,2,3] 李曦光 李萧婷 王磊 王蕾 LUO Lei;LI Xiguang;LI Xiaoting;WANG Lei;WANG Lei(Institute of Resource Information,Xinjiang Academy of Forestry Sciences,Urumqi 830063,Xinjiang,China;Key Laboratory of Forest Resources and Utilization in Xinjiang of National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Urumqi 830063,Xinjiang,China;Key Laboratory of Fruit Tree Species Breeding and Cultivation in Xinjiang,Urumqi 830063,Xinjiang,China;Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Forest Fruit Industry Development Center,Urumqi 830063,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆林业科学院资源信息研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830063 [2]新疆林木资源与利用国家林草局重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830063 [3]新疆林果树种选育与栽培重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830063 [4]新疆维吾尔自治区林果产业发展中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830063

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2025年第3期511-522,共12页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：自治区重点研发计划项目“基于“空天地”多源遥感监测技术的林果资源数据体系建设”(2023B02004-1);自治区重点研发计划项目“冻害预报、预警技术体系和风险区划研究”(2023B02026-3)。

摘　　要：本研究基于MaxEnt模型,结合沙棘在新疆分布点数据、历史(末次盛冰期、全新世中期)、当前、未来时期(2050s、2070s)气候数据以及海拔数据,模拟沙棘在不同气候场景下的潜在地理分布区域。分析影响沙棘在新疆自然分布的主要气候环境因子,阐述了沙棘分布区的迁移变化。结果表明:沙棘适宜区环境因子为年平均温度在-1~8℃,最湿季度降水量在50~110 mm,最暖月最高气温在22~32℃,最干月降水量为5~13 mm,适宜沙棘生存的海拔主要为500~1000 m。在当前气候环境下,沙棘在南北疆均有分布,主要分布于新疆北部及西南部地区。未来气候场景下沙棘分布区质心均向东北方向迁移。研究结果可为沙棘资源发展规划提供理论数据支持。Hippophae rhamnoides is a plant that is light-loving,cold-resistant,heat-resistant,wind/sand-resistant,thrives in arid climates,and has high nutritional value.This study combines data on the distribution of sea buckthorn in Xinjiang,historical(last glacial period,mid-Holocene),current,and future(2050s,2070s)climate data,and altitude data to simulate the potential geographical distribution of Hippophae rhamnoides under different climate scenarios based on the MaxEnt model.The main climatic and environmental factors affecting the natural distribution of sea buckthorn in Xinjiang were analyzed,and its distribution and migration were expounded.The results showed that the AUC values of each climate scenario exceeded 0.9,indicating high accuracy of the model prediction.The main environmental factors in the areas suitable for sea buckthorn are annual average temperature of−1 to 8℃,precipitation in the warmest quarter of 50-110 mm,highest temperature in the warmest month of 22-32℃,and precipitation in the driest month of 5-13 mm.In terms of altitude,the main range suitable for sea buckthorn survival is 500-1000 m.In the current climate,sea buckthorn is distributed in both northern and southern Xinjiang,particularly in northern and southwestern Xinjiang.Analysis of the centroid migration of the distribution of sea buckthorn under future climate scenarios revealed migration to the northeast.The results of this study can provide theoretical support for the development of plans to maximize the use of sea buckthorn resources.

关 键 词：沙棘 最大熵模型 气候变化 适生区 新疆 

分 类 号：F32[经济管理—产业经济]