威胁态势与军队政治化的差异路径及其逻辑分析——基于泰国与缅甸的比较研究  

Different Paths and Logic Analysis of Threat State and Military Politicization: A Comparison of Thailand and Myanmar

作　　者：夏方波 邵一鸣 Xia Fangbo;Shao Yiming(the School of International Relations and Diplomacy,Beijing Foreign Studies University)

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学国际关系学院,北京100089

出　　处：《区域国别学刊》2025年第2期108-135,159,共29页COUNTRY AND AREA STUDIES

基　　金：国家社科基金中国历史研究院重大历史问题研究专项“东南亚现代国家发展历史”(项目批准号:23VLS0267)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：军队政治化是发展中国家在政治现代化进程中普遍面临的问题,其产生的根源及对政治转型的影响受到广泛争论,但很少研究探析军队政治化的差异路径。东南亚国家的现实经验引出的问题是军队政治化在具体过程、程度以及方式等方面为何存在显著差异?既有研究强调军队生存动机、军队职能和精英政治等因素的作用,但解释力相对有限。本文基于军队政治化“干政—参政—政权控制”的过程,提出了威胁态势塑造军队政治化的理论框架,并以泰国和缅甸军队作为案例分析对象。研究发现,对立型威胁塑造了泰国皇家武装部队按需干政的行为模式,致力于将参政行为制度化与合法化,达成目的后再适时退出或逐渐剥离,其政治化总体上呈现出相对灵活的特征;而缅甸国防军在复合型威胁的压力下,形成了强势参政的倾向,积极渗透到各个领域并最终走向了垄断国家权力的全面政治化。从军队去政治化的角度来看,使军队回到旧职业主义的关键在于建立统一、强大的政治行为体,增强国家自主性和组织国家能力,在有效履行国家治理职能的基础上化解威胁。Military politicization remains a persistent challenge in developing countries' political modernization processes. While its causes and impacts on political transition are widely studied, the varying pathways of military politicization remain underexplored. This study examines why Southeast Asian countries exhibit significant differences in the process, degree, and mode of military politicization. Moving beyond traditional explanations focusing on military survival motivation, functions, and elite politics, this research proposes a theoretical framework analyzing how threat states shape military politicization through a three-step process: intervention, participation, and regime control. Using comparative case studies of the Royal Thai Armed Forces(RTAF) and Myanmar's Tatmadaw, the research reveals distinct patterns. The RTAF demonstrates flexible politicization characterized by on-demand intervention, institutionalized participation, and eventual withdrawal. Conversely, the Tatmadaw, under complex threat pressures, exhibits comprehensive political engagement culminating in state power monopolization. The study concludes that military depoliticization requires establishing unified political actors, building national autonomy, and developing organizational capacity to address threats through effective governance.

关 键 词：军队政治化 威胁态势 东南亚 泰国皇家武装部队 缅甸国防军 

分 类 号：D733.6[政治法律—政治学]