建筑物化阶段碳排放快速预测模型对比研究  

Comparative study of rapid carbon emission prediction models in the building materialization stage

作　　者：张孝存 ZHANG Xiaocun(School of Civil&Environmental Engineering and Geography Science,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学土木工程与地理环境学院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期10-19,F0003,共11页Journal of Xi'an University of Architecture & Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：宁波市自然科学基金项目(2023J073);浙江省自然科学基金项目(LQ22E080001);国家自然科学基金项目(52108152)。

摘　　要：为研究建筑隐含碳排放强度的快速预测方法,对比现有材料生产、建筑施工及物化阶段预测模型的形式与变量,并基于50个居住和办公建筑样本对不同模型的性能进行统计分析.结果表明,剔除异常数据后,建筑样本的物化碳排放强度均值为496.2 kgCO_(2) e/m^(2),变异系数为0.333,具有较好的代表性.以建筑层数等简单设计参数为变量的预测模型效果较差,物化碳排放强度与层数的线性相关性较弱,需拓展参数变量以提高方案设计阶段预测模型的准确性.以钢材、混凝土、砌体等基本建材消耗指标或碳排放强度为变量的预测模型,R^(2)可达0.75以上,MAPE不高于15%,能够实现初步设计与施工图设计过程中的高效、可靠预测,为低碳设计提供参考.In order to study the rapid prediction method of building embodied carbon emission intensity,the forms and variables of existing prediction models in material production,construction and materialization stages are compared,and the performance of different models is statistically analyzed based on 50 residential and office building samples.The results show that after eliminating the abnormal data,the average embodied carbon intensity of the building samples is 496.2 kg CO_(2)e/m^(2),with a coefficient of variation of 0.333,demonstrating good representativeness.The prediction model with simple design parameters such as building floors as variables is less effective,and the linear correlation between embodied carbon intensities and the number of floors is weak.To improve the accuracy of prediction models during the conceptual design phase,additional parameters should be incorporated.In the prediction model with the consumption index or carbon emission intensity of basic building materials such as steel,concrete and masonry as variables,the R^(2) can reach more than 0.75,and the MAPE is not higher than 15%,which can realize the efficient and reliable prediction in the process of preliminary design and construction drawing design,and provide reference for low-carbon design.

关 键 词：建筑碳排放 物化阶段 预测模型 统计分析 

分 类 号：TU201.5[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]