基于参数优化MaxEnt模型的气候变化下青头潜鸭(Aythya baeri)在长江流域的潜在适生区预测  

Predicting the Potential Suitable Areas of Aythya baeri in the Yangtze River Basin under the Climate Change Scenario Based on Parameter Optimization MaxEnt Model

作　　者：刘晶晶 张舟 张权 姜琳琳 杨朝辉 LIU Jing-jing;ZHANG Zhou;ZHANG Quan;JIANG Lin-lin;YANG Zhao-hui(School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Suzhou University of Science and Technology,Suzhou 215009,China;School of Geography and Tourism,Anhui Normal University,Wuhu 241003,China;School of Geographical Science and Geomatics Engineering,Suzhou University of Science and Technology,Suzhou 215009,China)

机构地区：[1]苏州科技大学环境科学与工程学院,江苏苏州215009 [2]安徽师范大学地理与旅游学院,安徽芜湖241003 [3]苏州科技大学地理科学与测绘工程学院,江苏苏州215009

出　　处：《生态与农村环境学报》2025年第3期295-307,共13页Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41701477)。

摘　　要：研究气候变化对濒危物种的影响对于物种的长期保护和管理具有重要意义。本研究以青头潜鸭(Aythya baeri)为研究对象,采用第六次国际气候耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的气候因子数据、地形数据和长江流域青头潜鸭分布点数据,运用R语言中的ENMeval数据包对调控倍率(RM)和特征组合(FC)进行优化,并对数据进行空间独立分区。基于最优MaxEnt模型预测当代气候条件和未来气候变化下3个时期(2041—2060、2061—2070和2081—2100年)和4种不同气候情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5)下青头潜鸭在长江流域的潜在适生区空间分布格局及其质心变化趋势。结果表明:(1)综合各个时期影响青头潜鸭在长江流域分布的贡献率排名和因子响应曲线可知,影响其适生区的主导环境因子是海拔(ELE)、年平均气温(bio1)和降水量变异系数(bio15)。(2)当代青头潜鸭在长江流域的最适分布区主要集中于长江中下游地区和四川盆地东北部,零星分布于云南省的一些湖泊湿地。(3)未来不同气候情景对青头潜鸭的潜在分布将产生多样化影响,高适生区相较于当代有增加趋势。SSP3-7.0气候情景下随年份增大青头潜鸭在长江流域的潜在总适生区面积变化趋于稳定增加;SSP5-8.5情景下在2081—2100年新增面积和丧失面积均出现逆向变化。相较于其他气候情景,SSP2-4.5气候情景下总适生区面积逐年减少,新增率与丧失率呈现负增长趋势。同时,质心迁移结果表明青头潜鸭分布中心呈西迁趋势。本研究探索了未来气候情景下大区域范围内青头潜鸭潜在适生区的预测分析方法,揭示了气候变化对其适生区的影响,为长江流域鸟类栖息地保护和相应物种保护策略建立提供科学参考依据。Researching the impact of climate change on endangered species is important for the long-term conservation and management of species.Taking Aythya baeri as the research object,the study adopted climate factor data,terrain data,and distribution data of Aythya baeri in the Yangtze River Basin from CMIP6(coupled model intercomparison project phase 6),applied ENMeval data package in R language to optimize the RM(regularization multiplier)and FC(feature combination),and partitioned the data independently.The optimal MaxEnt model was used to predict the spatial distribution pattern and its centroid changes of potential suitability of Aythya baeri in the Yangtze River Basin in three periods(2041-2060,2061-2070,2081-2100)and four different climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5)under contemporary climate conditions and future climate change.The results show that:(1)Based on the ranking of contribution rate and factor response curve of various historical periods,it is evident that dominant environmental factors affecting the suitable habitat of Aythya baeri in the Yangtze River Basin are altitude(ELE),annual average temperature(bio1)and coefficient of variation of precipitation(bio15).(2)Currently,the most suitable distribution area of Aythya baeri in the Yangtze River Basin is mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the northeastern part of the Sichuan Basin,with scattered populations found in some wetlands around lakes in Yunnan Province.(3)In the future,different climate scenarios will have diverse impacts on the potential distribution of Aythya baeri,with an increasing trend in the high-suitability areas compared to the present.Under the SSP3-7.0 climate scenario,the potential total suitable habitat area for Aythya baeri in the Yangtze River Basis tends to steadily increase with years.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,there appears to be a reversing trend in both the addition and loss of suitable habitats from 2081 to 2100.Compared to other climate scenarios,the total suit

关 键 词：青头潜鸭 MaxEnt模型 ENMeval数据包 适生区预测 气候变化 濒危物种 第六次国际气候耦合模式比较计划 

分 类 号：Q958.1[生物学—动物学]