县域国土空间碳排放时空演变特征与模拟研究:以四川省邛崃市为例  

Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Simulation of County Territorial Carbon Emission:Take Qionglai City of Sichuan Province as an Example

作　　者：刘志彬 吴玺 余东芮 李军 余向克 高雪松 欧定华 邓云思 LIU Zhi-bin;WU Xi;YU Dong-rui;LI Jun;YU Xiang-ke;GAO Xue-song;OU Ding-hua;DENG Yun-si(Sichuan Territorial Remediation Center/Key Laboratory of Consolidation and Rehabilitation,Ministry of Natural Resources,Chengdu 611130,China;Cultivated Land Protection Supervision Department of Sichuan Province Department of Natural Resources,Chengdu 611130,China;College of Resources and Environmental Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China;Sichuan Academy of Land Science and Technology(Sichuan Satellite Application Technology Center),Chengdu 611130,China;College of Resources,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China;Key Laboratory of Cultivated Land Resources Investigation Monitoring,and Conservation Utilization,Ministry of Natural Resources,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省国土整治中心/自然资源部土地整治重点实验室,四川成都611130 [2]四川省自然资源厅耕地保护监督处,四川成都611130 [3]武汉大学资源与环境科学学院,湖北武汉430079 [4]四川省国土科学技术研究院,四川成都611130 [5]四川农业大学资源学院,四川成都611130 [6]自然资源部耕地资源调查监测与保护利用重点实验室,四川成都611130

出　　处：《生态与农村环境学报》2025年第3期336-348,共13页Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment

基　　金：四川省哲学社会科学基金(SCJJ23ND161)。

摘　　要：本文利用2009—2023年邛崃市社会经济与土地利用数据,通过趋势、空间自相关和Hurst指数分析,研究该县级行政区的国土空间碳排放时空格局演变特征。结果表明:(1)2009—2023年邛崃市碳排放总量呈缓慢增长—快速增长的变化趋势,各类国土空间的碳排放量变化也可以划分为两个明显不同的阶段,但乡村生产空间的碳排放量在国土空间碳排放总量的占比始终大于70%;(2)2009—2023年,邛崃市国土空间碳排放量“东高西低”的空间分异格局越发明显,空间正向集聚性显著,并逐渐表现出“多中心热点集聚”和“冷点连片”特征;(3)全市有99.1%的国土空间表现出碳排放量变化的正向持续性,未来将延续2009—2023年的变化趋势,而全市仅有0.53%的国土空间未来碳排放量将由增长向降低转变,并主要分布在回龙镇丘陵区和南河两岸。研究邛崃市碳排放量的时空演变特征及未来变化趋势,可为县域低碳国土空间规划提供数据支撑与思路参考。County-level administrative regions play a critical role in China′s carbon control and emission reduction efforts,with territorial space serving as a key strategic area for implementing these tasks.This study,based on socio-economic and land use data from Qionglai City between 2010 and 2020,employs trend analysis,spatial autocorrelation analysis,and the Hurst index to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon emissions in this county-level region.The findings are as follows:(1)From 2010 to 2020,Qionglai City′s total carbon emissions followed a pattern of"slow growth-rapid growth,"with emissions from various territorial spaces also exhibiting two distinct phases.Notably,carbon emissions from rural production spaces consistently accounted for over 70%of total emissions in the region;(2)Over the past decade,the spatial differentiation pattern of"high in the east,low in the west"has become increasingly pronounced,showing the emergence of"polycentric hotspot agglomerations"and"cold spot contiguities";(3)A majority(99.1%)of Qionglai City′s territorial space exhibits positive sustainability in carbon emission trends,suggesting that emissions will continue along the 2010-2020 trajectory,while only 0.53%of the region—primarily in Huilong Town′s hilly areas and along the Nanhe River—will experience a shift from growth to decline in carbon emissions.This study provides valuable data and insights for low-carbon territorial space planning at the county level.

关 键 词：碳排放 时空演变 国土空间 HURST指数 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济] X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]