旅游产业与新质生产力的耦合协调度研究  

Study on the Coupling Coordinative Degree between Tourism Industry and New Quality Productivity

作　　者：钟家雨 周洋坤 Zhong Jiayu;Zhou Yangkun(Jiangxi Science and Technology Normal University,Nanchang 330038,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]江西科技师范大学旅游与历史文化学院,江西南昌330038

出　　处：《江西科技师范大学学报》2025年第1期56-68,共13页Journal of Jiangxi Science & Technology Normal University

摘　　要：构建旅游产业和新质生产力两个系统的指标评价体系,基于2013-2022年中国30个省区的面板数据,通过熵权TOPSIS法、耦合协调度模型和灰色预测模型,对两个系统的耦合协调发展水平进行了空间分布特征分析和时序分析及预测,研究结果表明:第一,从西部到东部,旅游产业与新质生产力的协调发展类型主要呈现阶梯式变化规律,依次为旅游产业滞后型发展、中等同步型协调发展、新质生产力滞后型发展、优质同步型协调发展,其中,上海和山西两地区达到了同步型协调发展;第二,旅游产业与新质生产力的耦合协调等级存在以广东和江苏两地区为代表的空间聚集和扩散现象;第三,东部、中部、西部及30个省区的耦合协调度呈现“N”型上升-下降-上升趋势,但具有明显的区域差异,且整体水平较低;第四,2023-2027年的耦合协调度持续升高,呈直线上升趋势,中部地区预计到2026年达到协调发展,西部地区预计到2027年达到协调发展,30个省区预计到2025年达到协调发展。this paper constructs an index evaluation system for the tourism industry and the new quality productivity system.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 2013 to 2022,it analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics and time series of the coupling and coordinated development level of the two systems through the entropy weight TOPSIS method,the coupling coordination degree model,and the grey prediction model.The research results show that:Firstly,from the west to the east,the coordinated development types of the tourism industry and the new quality productivity mainly present a stepwise change pattern,successively the tourism industry lagging type development→medium synchronous type coordinated development→new quality productivity lagging type development→high-quality synchronous type coordinated development.Among them,Shanghai and Shanxi have achieved synchronous type coordinated development.Secondly,there is a spatial agglomeration and diffusion phenomenon of the coupling coordination degree of the tourism industry and the new quality productivity,represented by Guangdong and Jiangsu.Thirdly,the coupling coordination degree of the eastern,central,western regions and the 30 provinces shows an"N"-shaped upward-downward-upward trend,but with obvious regional differences,the overall level is relatively low.Fourthly,the coupling coordination degree will continue to rise from 2023 to 2027,showing a straight upward trend.It is expected that the central region will achieve coordinated development by 2026,the western region by 2027,and all 30 provinces and autonomous regions by 2025.

关 键 词：旅游产业 新质生产力 熵权TOPSIS 耦合协调 灰色预测 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]