基于GDIM的京津冀公共建筑碳排放影响因素分析  

Analysis of Factors Influencing Carbon Emissions of Public Buildings in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei Based on GDIM

作　　者：王思琪 WANG Siqi(School of Civil Engineering,North China University of Technology)

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学土木工程学院

出　　处：《上海节能》2025年第3期404-413,共10页Shanghai Energy Saving

摘　　要：建筑部门是我国三大能耗部门,其中的公共建筑用能需求不断增长,在“双碳”目标背景下,探究京津冀公共建筑碳排放的影响因素有利于京津冀地区协同减排与可持续发展。采用自上而下的视角,基于能源平衡表的建筑能耗拆分模型拆解计算2006-2021年京津冀三省市公共建筑运行阶段能耗与碳排放,在此基础上运用广义迪氏指数分解法(GDIM)将碳排放影响因素分解成经济水平、能源消耗和人口规模等8个效应,量化分析其贡献率。结果表明:经济水平是导致碳排放增加的主要因素,能源消耗、人口规模和人均碳排放对碳排放呈现促增效应;产出碳强度是导致碳排放降低的主要因素;能耗强度、人均GDP和耗能碳强度对碳排放变化影响较弱。The construction sector is one of the three major energy consuming sectors in China,among which the energy demand for public buildings is growing.Under the background of the"Double Carbon"goal,exploring the influencing factors of carbon emissions from public buildings in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei is conducive to coordinated emission reduction and sustainable development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Using a LMtop-down perspective,the building energy consumption split model based on the energy balance sheet is disassembled and calculated to calculate the energy consumption and carbon emissions of public buildings in the three provinces and cities of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei from 2006 to 2021.On this basis,the Generalized Divisia Index Method(GDIM)is employed to decompose the factors affecting carbon emissions into eight effects including economic level,energy consumption and population size,and quantifies their contribution rates.The results show that:economic level is the main factor leading to the increase in carbon emissions,and energy consumption,population size and per capita carbon emissions have a positive effect on carbon emissions;output carbon intensity is the main factor leading to the reduction of carbon emissions;energy consumption intensity,per capita GDP and energy-consuming carbon intensity have a weak impact on changes in carbon emissions.

关 键 词：公共建筑碳排放 影响因素 京津冀 广义迪氏指数分解法(GDIM) 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]