基于全产业链视角的我国白羽肉鸡价格波动分析  

Analysis of Price Fluctuations in White Feather Broilers in China Based on Perspective of Whole Industry Chain

作　　者：张磊[1] 郑瑞芳 支大林[3] ZHANG Lei;ZHENG Ruifang;ZHI Dalin

机构地区：[1]鲁东大学商学院,烟台264025 [2]东北农业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150030 [3]东北师范大学经济与管理学院,长春130024

出　　处：《北华大学学报(社会科学版)》2024年第6期46-56,152,共12页Journal of Beihua University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“国内大循环视域下大中城市‘菜篮子’产品供给空间结构、市场对接及优化调控研究”(22BJY258)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：我国白羽肉鸡产业经历了从传统的小规模人工饲养到规模化自动化养殖的转变。考察我国白羽肉鸡市场价格波动的影响因素,对于推动白羽肉鸡产业的健康发展和提升国际竞争力具有重要意义。以2015年6月至2024年3月间白羽肉鸡产业链中的白羽肉鸡活体鸡、肉鸡饲料、雏鸡和白条鸡等的价格数据作为分析对象,依据数据平稳性检验结果,构建了滞后三阶的VAR模型,对白羽肉鸡产业链各环节进行了细致分析,用脉冲响应函数与方法分解的结果分析了白羽肉鸡产业链各环节之间价格的相互冲击效应。实证分析结果表明:饲料价格和活鸡价格的变动会引起鸡肉价格的波动,这种影响在较长期内表现得尤为显著。从肉鸡产业链视角出发可以得出如下启示:深化农产品供给侧改革,优化资源配置;推动肉鸡生产各环节数字化、信息化建设,完善流通机制,提高价格传导效率;加强白羽肉鸡规模化、标准化养殖,促进白羽肉鸡产业链高质量发展。The monthly data of white feather broiler price,broiler feed price and chicken and white striped chicken price in China’s white feather broiler industrial chain from June 2015 to March 2024 are selected as the research objects,and a third-order VAR model is constructed to analyze each industrial chain link of white feather broiler in China.The price impact between each industrial chain link of white feather broiler is analyzed by the results of impulse response function and method decomposition.The results show that the changes of feed price per kilogram and live chicken price will cause the fluctuation of chicken price,and have a significant impact in the long run.Finally,from the perspective of broiler industry chain,it is proposed to deepen the supply-side reform of agricultural products;Promote digital informationization in all aspects of broiler production,improve circulation mechanism and improve price transmission efficiency;Strengthen the large-scale standardized breeding of white feather broilers and promote the development of industrial chain of white feather broilers.

关 键 词：白羽肉鸡 产业链 价格波动 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]